Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, September 16, 2015 at 1:00 PM
I have to say I was surprised Tuesday morning by the news that the University of Texas was firing its athletic director. They’re technically saying he “resigned” for the good of the university…but he was forced out plain as day. How can you make a move like that after winning a football game 42-28?! Maybe too many in the administration were laying -15.
As football handicappers and bettors, we need to figure out whether or not that move was a sign that UT already knows the rest of 2015 is going to be a disaster. Maybe they see the writing on the wall, and they want to start fixing it NOW rather than at the end of the season. Nothing wrong with that. Of course…what they’re fixing right now is the FUTURE rather than the present because the athletic director has so little to do with the current on-field talent.
You students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping know that I focus on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS when trying to pick winners. An analysis of the quarterback position helps show why Texas is in such deep trouble. Let’s compare what UT’s QB’s have done this season so far against Saturday’s opponent from California.
Jared Goff: 41-56-630, with 6 TD passes and 2 interceptions
UT QB’s: 13-33-231. With 2 TD passes and 0 interceptions
That’s a stunning 73% completion rate and 11.3 yards per attempt for Goff. Texas has managed only 39% and 7.0 in its two games. Yes, Texas has played the tougher schedule because of the road game at Notre Dame. But…Virginia passed much better than Texas did against that same Irish defense. And, going 13 of 33 in the air these days is RIDICULOUS because the emphasis is on short passes. If not for an occasional big gainer, Texas would have no passing offense whatsoever.
This betting line opened at California -3. Smart money has driven it all the way up near a touchdown. Texas money doesn’t even come in until +7 shows ups. I can tell you that California -3 would have been on the short list for a possible 100-unit or 200-unit release this weekend. I’ll still have to seriously think about the Bears (-) anything less than a touchdown given the quarterback mismatch.
If the rebuilding Texas defense was embarrassed by Notre Dame, and couldn’t get Rice off the field unless Rice threw the ball to them…what kind of night is Goff going to have?!
I will continue to monitor the local UT media and talk to sources I respect about the situation down there. If firing the AD is something that actually fires up the players…then maybe Texas will respond well and impress this week. But…to me…it was a sign that people who matter realize how misleading that 42-28 final score was vs. Rice (go read the game stats!) and wanted to get out ahead of the story.
There’s always some kind of new wrinkle you have to deal with when trying to make your living as a professional sports bettor. You think you’ve seen it all…but you haven’t. An Athletic Director for one of the biggest programs in all of college sports gets fired two games into a football season! It’s our job to read the tea leaves better and faster than the oddsmakers.
If you’d like some help solving each week’s handicapping riddles in college football, the NFL, and the Major League Baseball pennant races, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
I had planned initially on discussing how to handicap backup quarterbacks in today’s coursework. I mentioned that last time. This breaking story from Texas took precedence because I want to keep our discussions fresh and relevant. That’s a BIG story! In terms of handicapping backup QB’s who have to take over an offense because of injury…study the following…
*Poise in the pocket
*Poise vs. litmus test opponents
*Turnover potential, particularly in the area of downfield passing
*Ability to move the chains
*Ability to make smart choices in the red zone
Notre Dame will be trying to beat Georgia Tech in a high profile TV game with its backup quarterback. BYU will be trying to do the same at UCLA with a guy who managed to stun Boise State last week in his first career start. Oddsmakers are vulnerable with new quarterbacks because information is limited. Out-research the oddsmakers so you can outsmart them.
Back with you in a couple of days to talk about the NFL. I won my big 100-unit play last week in Cincinnati over Oakland (on the heels of Memphis over Kansas in the college). The Dean of Sports Handicapping expects this to be another huge weekend for my top releases. Keep learning from the coursework as you build your bankroll…and you’ll be a big time bettor like KELSO STURGEON in no time at all!
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