Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 at 12:00 PM
We’ve had some dramatic changes across the composite of NFL Futures prices based on the results from Week One of the regular season. There’s a new championship favorite…heading into a battle this week between the top two favorites! Further down the totem pole, there are teams who made some big jumps, or who fell down several rungs.
Let’s start at the top. The numbers you see reflect the return on a $100 bet. If you bet on Seattle to win the Super Bowl before last week, you were risking $100 to win $450. I’ll run last week’s leaders first…followed immediately by the new prices that are up currently.
TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL (before Week One)
Green Bay +600
New England +700
Miami, Pittsburgh +2500
TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL (after Week One)
Green Bay +500
New England +700
Denver, Dallas +1600
Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Miami +2500
Green Bay is now the market favorite to win the Super Bowl. They won on the road at Chicago Sunday while Seattle was losing in overtime at St. Louis. The Packers and Seahawks play in Green Bay this Sunday night, where the host is now favored by -3.5. That’s pointing to a 2-0 start for the Packers, and an 0-2 start for the Seahawks.
New England stood pat at +700…but increased its perceived advantages over Indianapolis and Denver at the top of the AFC. The Colts didn’t look anything like championship material in a loss at Buffalo. Denver beat Baltimore…but looked about as bad as possible while doing so. Neither of those teams scored an offensive touchdown!
It’s interesting that both Philadelphia and Dallas nudged upward a bit in the composite of industry prices despite failing to cover their openers. Both played prime time nailbiters that could have gone either way. Those rises are the result of Seattle looking mortal amidst some personnel and assistant coaching transitions. If Seattle’s falling back to the pack…the pack has a slightly better chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Buffalo and Kansas City of the AFC are both newcomers to the +2500 or better club. Each scored an impressive victory last week…and is now seen as at least a Wildcard contender in the AFC. Note that Kansas City is now -3 Thursday night at home over Denver…suggesting the market has those teams close together in week-to-week Power Ratings. Buffalo is currently either +1 or pick-em at home against the Patriots. And if you’re within 3-4 points of New England in neutral field Power Ratings…then you’re a playoff contender. Note that Buffalo’s jump to +2500 came from all the way back at +4000.
Arizona and Cincinnati snuck up as well, thanks to wins over New Orleans and Oakland respectively.
Moving down to the parity pack…
San Diego +2800
Atlanta, Pittsburgh, St. Louis +3300
Carolina, San Francisco, +4000
Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans, NY Giants +5000
Safe to assume that teams who won last week “rose” up to where to see them now, and teams that lost “fell” down to their current number. San Diego impressed some people with really big stats in their win over Detroit. Any of those last four teams in the +5000 listing will probably fall out of the darkhorse category if they lose again this week to fall to 0-2. Minnesota in particular was a big disappointment to many sharps Monday Night in San Francisco. Remember that the line in that game moved through the summer from Minnesota +3 to Minnesota -2.5. Then the Vikings looked awful!
NY Jets +6600
Chicago, Houston, Tennessee, +10000
Cleveland, Tampa Bay +20000
Jacksonville, Oakland +25000
Within this group, the NY Jets and Tennessee now have better odds…putting them in the “not as horrible as everyone thought” category for the time being. Hard to know for sure because all they did was beat the Cleveland/Tampa Bay tandem down on the +20000 rung!
I think following the Futures is going to be a fun exercise this season. There are some interesting storylines developing in all of those categories. We may have some new faces threatening to win their divisions if recent powers like Seattle and Denver have lost some of their scoreboard explosiveness. Buffalo may become a big story very quickly if they can knock off New England this Sunday for their second straight statement victory.
I’ll be back with you Thursday to begin our normal weekend sequence analyzing “sharp” betting in the marketplace. In the meantime, build your bankrolls with nightly baseball. Purchase my daily BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card every day. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours.
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