Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, September 14, 2015 at 1:00 PM
My clients and I cashed two very big 100-unit football winners this past weekend in absolute BLOWOUT fashion. Because they represent the true power of everything we talk about here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, I wanted to spend some time going over the details.
MEMPHIS (-) over Kansas 55-23 Saturday in College Football
The market missed this one by a mile. Memphis was about a two-touchdown favorite. Inexplicably, some smart money was actually coming in on Kansas before kickoff. INSANE! This was a complete and utter mismatch that was mis-lined by at least two touchdowns if you were focused on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS as well as THE MOTIVATION FACTOR.
Kansas has so few PLAYMAKERS that they lost their season opener at home to South Dakota State! Look at the final stats when they had to step up in class against talented Memphis…
Total Yardage: Memphis 651, Kansas 359
Yards-Per-Play: Memphis 8.2, Kansas 4.3
Memphis moved the ball so easily that they went 24-27-0-370 in the air, and scored 52 of their 55 points on drives of more than 60 yards. It was a college team looking to send a message to pollsters (off a 10-win season) vs. a high school team that was already demoralized because they know they’re staring 0-12 in the face. Amazing that the market would offer up such a big gift! The money was just sitting there on the table waiting for you to grab it.
Games like this are often at the heart of my biggest seasons. The market really will miss games by this much because it doesn’t understand the full dynamics of what causes the largest blowouts. Stop listening to the “perfected market” theory and other such nonsense. Opportunities like this are out there.
CINCINNATI (-) over Oakland 33-13 Sunday in the NFL
This one was actually 33-0 until the Raiders scored two garbage time touchdowns with their backup quarterback. Say what you want to about Andy Dalton of the Bengals. He may never be a guy who’s going to win important playoff games. He DOES know how to beat bad teams…that’s why the Bengals are consistently in playoff contention. Dalton vs. Derek Carr was a mismatch. Carr isn’t an NFL caliber quarterback…and he only has a job because the Raiders aren’t an NFL caliber franchise!
Again, the key stats point to a rout…
Total Yardage: Cincinnati 396, Oakland 246 even with garbage time
Yards-Per-Play: Cincinnati 6.1, Oakland 4.0
By NFL standards…that’s basically a college game! This is a league of parity, which often tricks oddsmakers and quants into not realizing when bad teams are about to get squashed. This wasn’t some sort of midseason sandwich game that might throw off the Bengals and allow the Raiders to steal a win. Everybody’s ready for the season opener…particularly teams aiming for playoff berths. Cincinnati was a 3-point favorite in a game they would lead 24-0 at halftime. Amazing.
I don’t want you to think that the weekend betting cards are full of big mistakes like these. You have to hunt them down and find them. And, the keys to doing just that are the essence of the coursework we’ve been discussing for a few years now here at the website. Some fundamentals to keep in mind as you move forward through the season…
*Oddsmakers are good, but they’re not perfect
*Sharps are good, but too many kid quants aren’t as smart as they think they are
*The line is basically DEFENSELESS against true mismatches
*Doing your homework and thinking through each game will allow you to exploit the openings
We’ll talk more about strategies all through the season. This seemed like the ideal time to review WHY we focus on certain keys, and HOW you can turn that hard work into money. Those 100-unit winners on Memphis and the Bengals sing the praises of this approach!
Our coursework is designed to help do-it-yourselfers. Additional assistance is always just a few clicks away. KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. This is a good time to get locked in for the rest of baseball along with college and pro football through the postseason. You get the most bang for your seasonal buck when you sign up early.
Back with you in a few days to talk about handicapping college football after quarterback injuries. Notre Dame has a big game this week with Georgia Tech, and has already lost Malik Zaire for the season. BYU had to beat Boise State last week with its original #2 quarterback. Given how many hits these kids are taking…handicappers will be dealing with this issue all through 2015.
If you’re reading this on Monday afternoon…don’t forget to check out my service for the MNF doubleheader on ESPN. If that’s in the rearview mirror, let’s get ready for the new week that starts Thursday. The Dean of Sports Handicapping appreciates your attendance and hard work. I trust you’re already seeing your summer efforts paying off.
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