Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, September 8, 2015 at 2:00 PM
Because of the huge interest in our sharps coverage last season, we’ve decided to expand in 2015 to include the NFL Futures markets. We’ll still have our standard late week coverage for the NFL and marquee college matchups. But, on Tuesdays we’ll be adding a look at odds to win the Super Bowl as they change throughout the regular season.
That begins today with a look at the final Preseason numbers heading into Thursday night’s kickoff game matching the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots. Both of those teams are currently priced in the top 10 of the NFL. New England is the favorite in the AFC, as Tom Brady appears to be locked into 16 games instead of 12. Pittsburgh is right on the fringe of “playoff caliber” at the moment.
I’ll start with the elites. Here’s a short list of teams most likely to win the Super Bowl in February of 2016 according to the betting markets. I’ll use prices that represent a composite of what I’m seeing here in Las Vegas and offshore. The numbers you see reflect the return on a $100 bet. If you bet on Seattle to win the Super Bowl, you’re betting $100 to win $450.
TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL
Green Bay +600
New England +700
Miami, Pittsburgh +2500
Those are the top 10 teams. Two-time defending Super Bowl champion Seattle leads the way unsurprisingly. Green Bay of the NFC is actually seen as a bigger favorite than any AFC team. You’ll recall that Green Bay blew a big lead in the NFC Championship game last season.
If you’ve only been casually following the markets, you may be surprised that Indianapolis is given the nod in fairly clear fashion over Denver as runner-up to the Pats. More than a few dddsmakers and sharps think that Peyton Manning is losing his battle with Father Time. 2015 is priced as the year where Andrew Luck formally replaces Manning on the quarterback totem pole, just as he replaced him at quarterback for Indianapolis. Also in play…Indianapolis plays in a much easier division…which gives them a good shot at earning a first round bye.
Philadelphia has made a move in recent days based on their strong Preseason. I should tell you that the adjustment is generally based on “square” perceptions from the public rather than sharp action from the Wise Guys. Well, that and oddsmakers made some tweaks in anticipation of betting action. The sharps I’m talking to are still skeptical about Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez as a quarterback combination in that system. Running up the score in the Preseason is much easier than doing so in the regular season against well-prepared teams who are attacking aggressively.
Let’s see what it looks like just below the top 10…
Arizona, Cincinnati, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans, NY Giants, San Diego +3300
Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, San Francisco, St. Louis +4000
Any of those teams could sneak into the playoffs this year. The NFC North didn’t have anyone in the top ten prices because nobody in that division posted a winning record last year. And, 12 teams make the playoffs anyway…so at least two teams from this group or the one below will be playing in January.
I want to point your attention to Minnesota…a team that’s been getting a lot of sharp respect through the summer. Teddy Bridgewater is showing signs of developing into a true impact player. I’ll be paying close attention to their number in the first half of the season.
On the other end of the spectrum, San Francisco has fallen well behind where they stood in recent seasons. Sharps are really down on the Niners. That’s why Minnesota is now a road favorite in San Francisco next Monday night.
Chicago, NY Jets +6600
Tampa Bay, Washington +10000
Tennessee, Oakland +15000
An interesting group here because those are all longshots to win the Super Bowl…but a few are definitely on the “buy” list for Wise Guys because they might represent good betting value out of the gate. I’ve talked to a few sharps who believe Marcos Mariota is a good fit for Tennessee’s coaching approach and roster. New Chicago head coach John Fox is respected as a man who can fix problems. Did Cleveland solve its quarterback issues? Definitely some storylines to follow here.
I’m looking forward to this addition in our article mix here at the Vegas-Sports-Masters website. I hope you’ll visit every Tuesday after lunch…as a prelude to your regular visits later in the week for our sharps reports on game betting lines.
Between now and this week’s first kickoffs, you can build your bankrolls with nightly baseball. Purchase my daily BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card every day. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours.
Back with you Thursday with a look at how sharps have been betting all the Thursday and Friday football through the week. Then on Friday we’ll study Saturday’s marquee college matchups. Our NFL reports will run on Saturday this year to give us an extra day to evaluate Wise Guy action in the marketplace.
Thanks for reading! See you again in a couple of days.
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