Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, August 24, 2015 at 4:00 PM
Last week I outlined many of the important steps I use to isolate games that should be bet for big money in the NFL Preseason for all of you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. When Saturday rolled around, my 100-unit NFL Preseason Game of the Year won outright as an underdog…and it was backed by many of the key influences we discussed.
In fact, that play was much more dominant than the final score made it seem.
First…the play. I released 100-units on Denver (+2) over Houston. The Broncos won the game outright 14-10. Now…that doesn’t sound like an easy cover given the final score. But, you may not be aware that Houston’s only touchdown was defensive! At the point of attack, Denver actually crushed Houston.
Denver won total yards 383-282
Denver won yards-per-play 6.1 to 4.0
Denver “would” have won 14-3 if not for the pick six
Those are the stats of a rout when you consider that it was the underdog doing all the dominating. The wrong team was favored…very clearly. It took bad luck to turn it into a game that had to be sweated. Our underdog should have won straight up by double digits…and had the stats of a team that controlled the evening. We had so much insurance with this pick that we could dodge an unlucky touchdown the other way and still cash outright.
Now…WHY did KELSO STURGEON like this play so much? In a moment, I’ll review how last Thursday’s coursework helped foreshadow this game. If you follow the NFL, you can probably figure out the biggest influence.
DENVER COACH GARY KUBIAK WANTED TO BEAT HIS FORMER TEAM!
I was very confident that Denver was going to go for the win here. Coach Kubiak definitely wanted the victory over the team that got rid of him. Even if it was a Preseason game. And, the Houston players who knew Kubiak had no sort of revenge factor. Most probably wish him the best! So…starting off, THE MOTIVATION FACTOR was giving us a great spot.
Add in these influences from last week’s article…
*Take MOTIVATED vs. COULDN’T CARE LESS for really big units
Denver was motivated. Houston was coming off a home win over San Francisco, and was now in a sandwich spot in terms of intensity with their dress rehearsal game on the schedule next week. I don’t know that “couldn’t care less” fully applies. But it’s clear that Kubiak is bringing an intense sense of urgency to Denver’s preseason (as management in the form of John Elway demands!), while Houston had no reason to bring any fire this week.
*In the Preseason, PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS means BACKUP quarterbacks
Peyton Manning was going to get snaps this week…which meant productive Brock Osweiler (15-20-151 vs. Seattle the prior week) and sleeper Trevor Siemian (5-6-90 vs. Seattle the prior week) were going to be deciding the bet in the second half once the starters were off the field. I had hoped Manning would do more. But, Osweiler threw a long touchdown pass. Then, Siemian provided heroic insurance when Osweiler threw a TD pass to the wrong team. Don’t forget the hidden value that comes into play for backup quarterbacks when the head coach used to play quarterback! Siemian is definitely a guy to keep an eye on in that regard, by the way. Houston’s quarterback in the second half was going to be Tom Savage. Big difference in context. Denver would be trying for the win with guys who can move the ball. Houston would be going through the motions with a generic third wheel.
*Pay attention to the new head coaches
I danced around this a bit because I didn’t want to telegraph my coming GOY release to the markets. There are several head coaches performing at varying levels of effectiveness so far. No way KELSO STURGEON is going to scream “Hey, Gary Kubiak is facing his former team!” right before I post a release on the Broncos. Hopefully you do-it-yourselfers dug through the guidance about new head coaches and spotted that on your own.
Let’s review the questions for new coaches I posted in the bridge from Week One to Week Two…
*Were their teams ready to win last week?
*Did their teams execute well last week?
*Did their teams play hard for a quarter, but then coast last week?
*Were there differences between veteran coaches who were just in their first year with a new franchise…and the men who were truly rookie head coaches at this level?
*Are there any home/road dynamics in play that could influence upcoming outcomes?
*Can you spot any “disasters” that are already happening?
*Can you spot any “turnarounds” that are already happening?
Denver was very sharp in Week One, earning a road victory at two-time defending NFC champion Seattle. They didn’t coast in the second half. They expressed the sense of urgency that this veteran coach in a new locale is emphasizing with his team.
I haven’t mentioned yet that Denver’s DEFENSE is playing very well. Seattle had a kickoff return TD in that opener, or the Broncos would have won 22-13 (total yardage was a 356-181 slaughter). Keep that in mind moving forward. As impressive as opening with two road victories in Seattle and Houston is…the Broncos are playing even better than the scoreboard has made it seem.
Will I be on the Broncos again this week? We’ll have to see what develops the next few days in terms of line movement and personnel developments. I can tell you that there’s a good chance we’ll have another release of at least 100-units somewhere in the NFL. That usually happens in the dress rehearsals. And, the reasons for that major release have been described in advance here in our coursework.
Game day BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping loves the NFL Preseason. I hope you do-it-yourselfers are developing an understanding of why that’s true. See you again later this week before the dress rehearsals begin.
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