Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, August 20, 2015 at 5:00 PM
Now that you’ve had a taste of NFL Preseason action…both from a handicapping and stat review perspective…it’s a great time to review what factors smart bettors should be looking for when trying to find games you can really step out on this week and next.
Now…I’m not going to post my big plays here in the coursework of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. That information is for paying customers. I’m going to review the key factors that go into what might trigger a 50-unit, 100-unit, or possibly even a 200-unit release. More of those will be coming up in very short order at this website.
First, I’m going to talk about THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. Though, sometimes you have to think of that as the COULDN’T CARE LESS factor! Some NFL teams are just going through the motions to make sure their first teamers have their timing down. They don’t care about the scoreboard. They don’t care that much about how the worst backups perform because they won’t be on the team next month anyway. You saw last week that a handful of teams barely showed up for their games. That’s going to happen again this week…and might even be MORE common because most everyone will play for real next week in the dress rehearsals.
Obviously the dream scenario is to get a team that cares about winning in impressive fashion matched up against a no-show. Something like that was worth 50-units out of the gate last week…and then more this week and beyond. But, even a team that’s “neutral” in motivation can be a great bet against a “couldn’t care less” opponent. Even “neutral” can beat a laydown 17-6 or 24-10.
Take MOTIVATED vs. COULDN’T CARE LESS for really big units
Take MOTIVATED vs. NEUTRAL
Take NEUTRAL vs. COULDN’T CARE LESS
You longtime students know my next key is going to concern PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS. In the preseason, that typically means BACKUP quarterbacks and skill position athletes who are fighting to impress their coaches. The first team won’t be playing enough this week to put a game out of reach (though they will in next week’s dress rehearsals). It’s the backups who will be on the field in the second half who will be winning or losing for Las Vegas bettors. It would behoove you now to go back and review the stats for all backup quarterbacks in last week’s games! Also, make note of any backups who sat last week but will play this week. Veterans will probably produce. Inexperienced first and second year backup quarterbacks will likely struggle.
Now…take that guidance trio above with the motivated, neutral, and couldn’t care less teams…and adjust further based on what you’ve discovered about the most important offensive influences on the field.
The third angle I want you to think about this week and next for finding big plays specifically involves the new head coaches. I’ve talked about them already in past coursework. NOW you have a one-game sample to review how teams are performing for these men.
Ask yourself these questions:
*Were their teams ready to win last week?
*Did their teams execute well last week?
*Did their teams play hard for a quarter, but then coast last week?
*Were there differences between veteran coaches who were just in their first year with a new franchise…and the men who were truly rookie head coaches at this level?
*Are there any home/road dynamics in play that could influence upcoming outcomes?
*Can you spot any “disasters” that are already happening?
*Can you spot any “turnarounds” that are already happening?
I have to be careful not to tip my hand here. But, I can tell you that the questions above are certainly influencing my card this week…and are very likely to come in even stronger during the dress rehearsals. If you put on your thinking caps…there’s a chance your evaluations will line up with my thought process.
I’m really looking forward to this weekend’s card. If you’d like some help finding the best plays on the board, be sure you check through the ads each day for big play bulletins. Game day BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. I know many of you are do-it-yourselfers. If you’re ready to start thinking like longterm investors…then my season programs do offer solid value.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. I’ll be back with you early next week for a review of Week Two’s key developments. NFL Preseason football isn’t for everybody. You probably have friends or relatives who can’t believe you like watching these games. Well, tell them you like making money! Or, better yet…don’t say anything…confident in your ability to take advantage of opportunities others can’t see. Have a great weekend!
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Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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