Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Saturday, August 1, 2015 at 7:00 AM
We’ve reached the month of August…which means NFL Preseason action is about to begin. That makes it a great time to check in on “Futures” odds to win the Super Bowl. You can used today’s numbers as a relative baseline to monitor as the season progresses.
I have to note up front that New England’s price is naturally in a bit of flux as the court system eventually works out how long Tom Brady’s suspension is going to be. Pricing is currently reflecting the likelihood that he’ll miss the first month. If that gets overturned, there won’t be too big a change because New England is already favored to win the AFC anyway.
Oddsmakers and sharps realize that Brady will be on the field when it matters come playoff time. It’s unlikely his absence would do so much damage in September that the team would ultimately miss the playoffs.
I’ll start with the favorites. Seattle is seen as a young, balanced team that “should” have won last season after lifting the trophy the year before. The Seahawks are current championship favorites using a consensus of offshore numbers (note that odds can vary wildly from store to store, so shop for the best number if you're betting Futures)…
Green Bay 6/1
New England 8/1
Those are the six teams who register at better than 20/1 to win the title on the consensus odds. As a group, “somebody” from that sextet is a relatively heavy favorite to win because the prices are so long on everybody outside the top six! Seattle and Green Bay are well clear of the NFC field, with Dallas gaining sharp respect through last season. Indianapolis and Andrew Luck are getting a serious look because he’s still young and improving. Some of you may be surprised that Denver is way down at 12/1. Many sharps I’ve talked to believe that Peyton Manning’s about finished as a championship caliber quarterback based on what they saw last January.
Here’s the next rung of contenders…
New Orleans 33/1
Kansas City 33/1
San Diego 33/1
There are some really good teams in there. But, the fact that there are SO MANY good teams in the mix help explain why the odds are so long. We’re dealing with a lot of parity once you get beneath the superpowers. You could grab any one of those teams…and it wouldn’t be a shock if they reached the playoffs…and even scored an upset in the playoffs over somebody like Denver or Green Bay. But, can they even reach the postseason out of tough divisions? Can they string together victories in the playoffs? You could visualize things “breaking right” for any of that group. But, things HAVE to break right for anyone in that group.
San Francisco 40/1
NY Giants 40/1
St. Louis 40/1
Wow…some great defenses seemingly getting disrespected for San Francisco and Houston. The 49ers had a coaching change that many sharps are skeptical of in terms of success in 2015. Houston has to show they can put points on the board offensively before the market will put them on the short list of championship hopefuls. Personally…I think Houston deserves more respect than it’s getting in the offshore Futures prices.
NY Jets 66/1
Tampa Bay 150/1
That’s everyone else. There’s not really much of a difference percentage-wise once you get down this low. It’s less “virtually impossible” for Cleveland to win a Super Bowl than for Jacksonville. This is a group you might look at for game-by-game betting value if you’re optimistic about any offseason changes they’ve made. History has made it clear that teams just can’t jump from pathetic to championship caliber this quickly.
I’ll keep an eye on these through the season…and will alert you to any major developments. Generally speaking…those major developments are when a team loses a quality quarterback for the season. Their odds get much worse immediately. But…after the injury you weren’t going to bet them anyway! Sharps generally lay money on other teams off an injury. Say…if Tom Brady were lost for the season for New England, sharps would be jumping in on Indianapolis and Denver as the teams most likely to take advantage come January.
We’re now just a week away from the Hall of Fame game matching Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Then, the following Thursday…we begin a slew of Preseason games that will carry us through the month. My sharps reports will be back on the blog schedule as week-by-week action begins. Thanks to all of you who have come back to this website for those!
In the meantime, let’s keep building our bankrolls with pennant race baseball. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours. If you’re calling on a Saturday or Sunday, try to do so before the earliest baseball begins.
See you next weekend for the Hall of Fame game. Thanks for reading today.
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