Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, July 22, 2015 at 7:00 AM
The Los Angeles Angels are in the midst of an important home series against the Minnesota Twins as we speak. It’s a battle of playoff contenders that entered their matchup just two games apart in the standings. The Angels were 52-40 prior to Tuesday’s opener, while Minnesota was 50-42.
Yet, the perception of these teams is miles apart. And, the major betting markets reflect those perceptions rather than the current standings.
*The Angels are now virtual co-favorites to win the AL at +350 (KC a shade better)
*The Twins are longshots to win the AL at +2100 (ranking #10 of 15 AL teams)
How can the Halos be THAT much more likely than the Twins to win the pennant given those won-lost records? Several factors are in play…
*The Angels have what’s seen as the much more talented roster
*The Angels have more financial resources if needed later in the season
*The Angels are 23-10 over their last 33 games
*The Angels were SUPPOSED to be this good, while Minnesota is seen as a fluke
The Twins have been an extremely pleasant surprise. But, the markets have established that they’re not going to give them “playoff caliber” respect. Yes, they’re no longer treated as a doormat. That’s something at least. The Angels are seen as finally playing up to their projections. They will be priced as a power from this point forward.
Though…Minnesota is +17 betting units this season because the market was so wrong about them! Are the Twins still be underpriced compared to their actual abilities? Let’s see what JIM HURLEY’S key indicator stats have to say about the rest of this series.
Minnesota: 4.25 runs per game, .306 on-base, .397 slugging
LA Angels: 4.24 runs per game, .312 on-base, .400 slugging
At first glance, those are dead even offenses. Through the same number of games, they were within one-hundredth of a run of each other per game! But, it has to be noted that the Angels play their home games in a much tougher hitting environment. This season’s Park Factors show Minnesota ranking #11 in its effect on offense, Anaheim #26. If you neutralize context, the Angels have the better offense.
Mike Pelfrey: 4.00 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.5 K-Rate, 5.8 IP-per-Start
C.J. Wilson: 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.5 K-Rate, 6.5 IP-per-Start
Pelfrey’s ERA has jumped more than a run over his last six starts. A surprisingly outstanding two-month performance finally turned into a pumpkin. That’s a very poor WHIP for the current era…and his low K-Rate and poor IP-start numbers will be an issue going forward. Wilson has thrown six quality starts in his last seven outings…lining up fairly well with the overall resurgence of the team as a whole. Wilson is clearly the more dangerous arm. Is the market properly reflecting that? Or overshooting the mark?
Ervin Santana: 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.4 K-Rate, 6.6 IP-per-Start
Garrett Richards: 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.9 K-Rate, 6.4 IP-per-Start
An early start Thursday afternoon because Minnesota has to fly back home to host the Yankees Friday night. The Halos stay home and host Texas. Santana has only made three starts this season, so there are sample size issues in those numbers. But, they’re close enough to career norms that it probably doesn’t matter. Richards just threw a complete game shutout against Boston, which was also his sixth quality start in his last seven outings. Nice pitching matchup to close things out. Worth thinking about the Under.
JIM HURLEY may or may not have something in these last two games of the series. That all depends on line value! You can purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about our “Dollars of August” football package when you call….because we’re now just days away from the start of the NFL exhibition season!
Some great baseball on tap before we jump into the SEC in college football over the weekend. Here’s what’s on tap here in the NOTEBOOK…
Thursday: MLB Series Preview…Washington at Pittsburgh
Friday: MLB Series Preview…Houston at Kansas City
Saturday: College Football Preview…SEC “East”
Sunday: College Football Preview…SEC “West”
Monday: MLB Series Preview…Detroit at Tampa Bay
Tuesday: MLB Series Preview…LA Angels at Houston
Wednesday: MLB Big Game Preview…NY Yankees at Texas
You know what’s special about Saturday and Sunday besides our SEC previews? That’s the last weekend of July! Yes…THE DOLLARS OF AUGUST need to be on your mind because August is almost here! Keep building your bankrolls with daily baseball so everything pyramids from now through the Super Bowl. You’re going to GET THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!
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