Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, July 21, 2015 at 7:00 AM
I wanted to take some time today to really pin down the importance of the passing game in modern day college football. So many teams are running variations of the spread offense now that you need to focus on how many true PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS are in each offensive attack.
*There are teams who have fourth or even fifth options that are capable of taking the ball the distance. How many times have we seen a swing pass to a backup running back go for a big gainer? Happens all the time! Particularly with well-coached teams who have been running the same schematic for years. They recruit to a system that unleashes athletes.
*On the other hand, there are teams who have one GREAT option, but then hardly anything after that. They can use that guy to beat weaker teams with soft defenses. But, then they’re in big trouble against top defenses who know how to take that option away with a double team or a smart containment approach. A great receiver may be a GAMEBREAKER one week as a favorite, but then a non-entity as a dog the next time out.
Students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping have to use the best time-proven methods while also staying on the cutting edge of football analysis. Here’s some cutting-edge homework for you to complete before the 2015 college football season begins…
*Review team-by-team stats last year with an eye on the FULL SCOPE of a team’s passing offense. Look at EVERYBODY who caught a pass. Note which teams make great use of their running backs on swing passes (and which don’t). Note which teams know what to do with their tight ends (and which just use him as a blocker, or don’t even have one on the field very often). You’ll be surprised how much you learn when you start ranking teams by who had the “best” #4 receiver in the country, or who had the best “#5” receiver. The DEPTH of attacks really hits home.
*With those team stats, also note the distribution of passing yardage. Do one or two guys get most of the yardage? Or, is it spread fairly evenly amongst many options. You can take those top-heavy teams vs. bad defenses…sometimes for very big bets. But, as I said earlier, top heavy teams can be shut down by quality. You want to know which teams have diverse weaponry and balance.
*Study the returning starters (or returning contributors) to figure out which offenses are likely to pick up in 2015 where they left off in 2014. It’s impossible to know for sure how things will play out before the season starts when there are a lot of new starters. Be sure you know who has EXPERIENCED starters who are ready to hit the ground running.
*Make note of the projected starting quarterbacks for each team. Then, make common-sense evaluations for their likely production. Keep in mind that “system” teams often have no trouble replacing a graduating star because the backup got so many repetitions the prior year in practice and in the second halves of blowouts. Be skeptical of teams who happened to ride the coattails of a future NFL player who singlehandedly overcame a poor system or an overmatched head coach.
*Be sure you’re aware of which teams changed offensive coordinators in the offseason. It’s always best to invest in known quantities. It’s usually best to be conservative after changes unless you’re extremely confident that a team is going to rise up or collapse. I can already tell you that some very big plays are on the way for my September service that will involve experienced offensive coordinators with a quality attack obliterating outmatched defenses. I also have my eye on a few teams to FADE because new starters for a new coordinator won’t have absorbed a system change in just a few short practice weeks.
*Obviously any head coaching change has to be watched very closely. You have to assume an awkward transition period…except in the rare cases where an extremely bad team has brought in a young up-and-comer with the potential for greatness. Even then…it usually takes the young up-and-comer awhile to get the house in order. I personally will be looking to fade teams this September who are dealing with coaching transitions as a general rule. And, fitting today’s theme, it’s because those teams won’t be ready to run a high octane offense out of the gate.
Our coursework, will be a mix of football and baseball through the summer. I hope you’ve been building your bankrolls with July baseball. My personal service selections can be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure you check on early-bird football rates when you call.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping will see you again later this week. Thanks again for your attendance and hard work!
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