Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, July 13, 2015 at 4:00 PM
There are very few days here in Las Vegas where there isn’t something to bet on. In the past, the All-Star Break represented the only real “dead spot” in the whole calendar year. That’s still pretty much the case, though Vegas sportsbooks are now offering Canadian football, the WNBA, and various golf props for the coming British Open in hopes of generating traffic.
For you students here in My College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, I have the following suggestions for “homework” during this quiet time in the schedule.
*First, take at least one day off! Sports betting is a grind. Get away from it for at least one day, preferably two. You don’t want to waste all of your free time. But, you do need to re-charge your batteries and freshen up for the task at hand. Football is coming. Pace yourself for the big money opportunities that will be awaiting through the rest of the calendar year.
*Second, if you’re handicapping baseball, take some time to run through all the “outlier” extremes that are likely to regress to the mean during the second half of the season. Do it at the team level (which teams are more likely to enjoy better luck on the field and with injuries, or worse luck). Do it with the PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS who decide most bets. You should be on the lookout for past stars who played slightly worse than expected (or more) in the first half of the season. You should be skeptical of “new stars” who may have been playing over their heads from April through early July.
The key to handicapping on a game-by-game basis is remembering that you’re trying to predict what’s going to happen THAT DAY with key players. First half stats can give you false reads when outliers are involved. Worse…in baseball…those false reads could impact SEVERAL games because you keep expecting a starting pitcher to struggle just because his “full season” numbers aren’t impressive. If he had a horrible April, but has been fine since then…he’s probably going to be fine the rest of the way. Stop fading him because of something that happened in April!
*Third, if you’re NOT handicapping baseball…jump aggressively into your football preparation. There are many lines on the board now in Las Vegas for regular season win totals in college and pro football, championship odds, and even Week One betting lines for early September. (Why aren’t you handicapping those games already?!) I’ve talked some in recent coursework already about football preparation. And, we’ll be getting back to that in very short order because the NFL Preseason is just a few weeks away. Do you already have those newsstand publications purchased and on your desk? Have you already accounted for offseason personnel moves? Do you know which new head coaches or coordinators are installing new systems?
At the very least, get your coaching ducks in a row this week. Go through the NFL’s website and other quality reference spots to make a list of every head coach and every offensive and defensive coordinator. Know how long they’ve been at their current post. Know what changes the newcomers will be making to fix whatever got their predecessor fired! If you do that NOW, you’ll be way ahead of the game when the season starts.
I’ll be back at the end of the week to talk about Post-All Star Break betting strategies that have proven the test of time. Between now and then, get some rest then do your homework!
If you want to bet the All-Star Game Tuesday Night, KELSO STURGEON’S selections can be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Why not get ALL your ducks in a row by locking in early for 2015 football?
I realize that many of you are do-it-yourself handicappers. That’s great…best of luck to you! If you’d like some additional daily assistance beyond the coursework…it’s very easy to get my picks at an affordable price.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping wants to thank all of you for your loyal attendance through the first half of the baseball season. We have a lot to do in the coming weeks, so take full advantage of this lull in the schedule. I’ll see you again at the end of the week.
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters