Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, July 6, 2015 at 3:00 PM
You probably never thought you’d see the day where KELSO STURGEON was writing about women’s soccer. It’s not exactly the biggest betting sport here in Las Vegas. There won’t be any more discussion about it locally, I’m guessing, until the 2019 Women’s World Cup when the US defends its crown.
But, you know what? Sunday’s Cup winning victory over Japan exemplified the two most important factors I’m always emphasizing to you here in my College of Advances Sports Betting and Handicapping. In fact, it may be the single best example in recent years from the entire sports world about the importance of:
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
The USA was absolutely dominant in those areas in its matchup with Japan. And, that dominance was under-expressed by the betting markets even though the USA was priced as a clear favorite. They weren’t priced to win by three goals! In fact, the Over/Under for the game was just TWO for combined goals from the two teams. The US team was expected to win 1-0, or 2-0, or 2-1. They weren’t expected to take the game Over all by themselves in the game’s “first quarter.” There were so-called “sharps” here in town telling people the Under was the “right” play because of Japan’s style. Yeah, right. USA more than doubled the full game Over/Under all by themselves.
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
The US had so many dynamic playmakers that some didn’t even get to see action in the championship game. Players who starred in earlier matches or in the build up to the event stayed on the bench because more and better playmakers were on the field. Before the tourney, soccer media kept talking about Germany’s playmakers. Where did they go? One got hurt. But, that was supposed to be a deep team that could handle one key injury. The US was FAR AND A WAY the most dangerous team in this category in the tournament.
THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
For months we’ve been hearing about redemption. The US team was on a mission…and they weren’t going to be denied. Has there been a bigger motivation factor in any sport lately than a GREAT team that was EMBARRASSED about a prior result and wanted to make up for that in the most dramatic way possible? There’s motivation…and there’s DEVOTING YOUR LIFE FOR FOUR YEARS to getting a result at a particular time and place in history.
Put those together…and you get a 4-0 early lead and a 5-2 rout for GAMEBREAKERS with peak MOTIVATION.
This is why those elements are so important, particularly when joined together in tandem. This is why I’ll have 100-unit and 200-unit releases in college football this season where I will confidently tell you that our “take” team has a 100% chance of winning outright and a 90% chance of covering the spread. This is why we’ll come across occasional plays in the NFL that grade out off the charts as well.
It’s been true for the many decades I’ve been living here in Las Vegas. Oddsmakers simply can’t put the right price on a game like this. They are defenseless….just as Japan was out of the gate on Sunday.
You either watched the game…or saw highlights…or had some family member tell you what a thrill it was to experience. Make sure you LEARN from it! I’ve been giving you a lot of homework in recent weeks here in the coursework. I can’t think of a better real-world example of why we handicap than that USA-Japan game. Winning bettors learn to recognize those opportunities in their preferred betting sports and exploit them.
Force yourself to think about baseball, football, and then basketball again in November in these terms.
*Who are the players most likely to make a difference on the field? Which teams DON’T have any…or don’t have enough?
*Which teams are on a mission, have a chip on their shoulder, or are otherwise motivated to get a big result at a particular time (like revenge in college football, or even when a lesser program has a chance to become bowl eligible for the first time in years)? Research the teams to evaluate attitude…and go through the schedules (which have been out for weeks already) to start circling potential statement games.
What you experienced Sunday in women’s soccer is going to happen SEVERAL times this football season. A team that seems like it’s priced too high will actually be priced way too low. If you know it’s coming…you can be ready when it arrives.
In the meantime, let’s keep building our bankrolls with smart baseball bets (where these factors also come into play more often than is realized). Top releases can be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Long after everyone’s stopped chanting “USA, USA, USA!” smart bettors will be confidently saying “Pay me!” at sportsbook windows. I trust you’ll be among them. See you next time.
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Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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