Submitted by Jim Hurley on Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 7:00 AM
Before the 2015 Major League Baseball season began, the betting markets were having serious trouble separating the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants. That was a bit odd considering that San Francisco just won a World Championship…while the Padres are perennial doormats! But…
*San Diego was finally getting serious about purchasing talent and making a run at respectability. (They were supposed to be the Cubs of the NL West as a “team to watch”!)
*San Francisco was in an obvious letdown spot off the postseason, as a team that tends to alternate strong seasons with disappointments.
Regular Season Win estimates in Las Vegas were almost identical. They centered around 84.5 for the supposedly resurgent Padres, and 84 for the supposedly fading Giants. Both were projected as clear Wildcard contenders behind the dominant LA Dodgers in the NL West, and ahead of distant also-rans Colorado and Arizona.
Well…just past the 70-game mark, the Dodgers are leading the West, while Colorado is a distant also-ran. But, the rest really isn’t going to script. San Francisco was just a half-a-game behind the Dodgers this past weekend until a loss in a head-to-head series finale dropped them 1.5 games back. San Diego is well off the pace, and recently had to fire its manager.
Let’s see what JIM HURLEY’S key indicator stats have to say about what’s been happening so far for these teams…heading into a three-game series that begins Tuesday night by the bay…
San Diego: 4.18 runs per game, .298 on-base, .374 slugging
San Francisco: 4.07 runs per game, .329 on-base, .398 slugging
Obviously that doesn’t add up. San Francisco gets more guys on base and hits the ball much harder. San Diego is LUCKY while being disappointing! That’s never a good sign. San Francisco doesn’t seem like a threat to the Dodgers with those numbers. But, they’re likely to produce more runs than the Padres going forward because scoring is so directly tied to those other two categories over larger sample sizes.
Odrisamer Despaigne: 4.92 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.7 K-Rate 6.0 IP-per-Start
Madison Bumgarner: 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.5 K-Rate 6.7 IP-per-Start
Nobody’s going to be worrying for long how to say or spell Despaigne’s name if he keeps that kind of pitching line. He does have four quality starts in his last six outings, but is still prone to disasters. Bumgarner is still an ace. He owned a 7-2 record until the Giants offense was shut out in his last two games! That’s much less likely to happen here. Big edge to Bumgarner, which the market is fully aware of.
Ian Kennedy: 5.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 K-Rate 5.3 IP-per-Start
Ryan Vogelsong: 4.38 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.7 K-Rate 5.7 IP-per-Start
Three quality starts in his last four have brought Kennedy’s ERA down from around seven! It’s very tough to have an ERA that high this deep into the season when you’re mostly throwing in pitcher’s parks. Truly a disaster for Kennedy thus far. Vogelsong is rarely a pitcher you can trust. Though, he did throw a gem last time out in Seattle. Probably best to look at the Over here. Either guy could get rocked, and they both might.
James Shields: 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.5 K-Rate, 6.2 IP-per-Start
Chris Heston: 3.83 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.8 K-Rate, 6.0 IP-per-Start
Note that this is a day-game to wrap up the series. Not much of a getaway spot though because SF stays home while the Padres only head back down the coast to San Diego. Shields is straddling the line between effective and disappointing. He was supposed to have ace numbers. That’s really only true in the strikeout department. In the other three categories he’s just another Chris Heston! Nice matchup…let the weather inform any Over/Under inklings you might have.
As of press time, it’s hard to know whether or not JIM HURLEY will have anything for you in this series. We wanted to focus on this matchup because we haven’t had a chance to talk much about the Padres this season. There will definitely be big plays on the nightly card from across a very vulnerable baseball betting market. You can purchase each night’s baseball BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about extended service, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Be sure to check on early-bird football when you call!
A mix of baseball and college football on the immediate horizon. Here’s what’s coming up in the NOTEBOOK…
Wednesday MLB Big Game Preview…Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Thursday: MLB Series Preview…New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Friday: MLB Series Preview…Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday: College Football…Mountain West “East” Preview
Sunday: College Football…Mountain West “West” Preview
Monday: MLB Series Preview…Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
Tuesday: MLB Series Preview…Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
That Mountain West weekend kicks off our annual summer series of college football conference previews. We like to start in the mid-majors and work our way up to the showcase conferences. Yes…it’s time to talk football!
But, it’s time to GET THE MONEY in baseball! Be sure you hook up with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK for BIG, JUICY WINNERS!
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