Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, June 22, 2015 at 2:00 PM
I’ve never devoted any time here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping to a discussion of what’s now called “Fantasy Baseball.” In the old days, it was called “Rotisserie” Baseball. I didn’t want to talk about it then either!
But, I feel I have to now because the mainstream media is starting to devote time and space to daily Fantasy developments. ESPN just purchased a piece of a big player in the field…and has expanded its coverage to include segments on SportsCenter as well as an expanded online presence. If YOU are trying to properly handicap Major League Baseball in the year 2015, you’re going to keep running into discussions about the Fantasy angle. You can’t avoid it. You’d think that injury reports or stat trends were covered only with Fantasy players in mind.
Look, I’ve said for many years that sportswriters would go broke if they had to bet their opinions here in Las Vegas. I very strongly believe the same is true right now for the so-called “journalists” who keep talking about Fantasy Baseball. There are online writers now who constantly reference “Las Vegas” or what happens “between the lines” with virtually no understanding of how the markets work. They just see that Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey is a big betting favorite, and say something like “Las Vegas says Kershaw is the best bet on the board.”
That’s not what “Vegas” is “saying!” But, those of you who are regulars here already know that.
KELSO STURGEON isn’t here to say that you shouldn’t be playing Fantasy Baseball. If that’s your cup of tea, go for it. Have fun. Treat it as an enjoyable activity that might also make you a few grocery dollars on the side. But recognize it for what it is. A truly SQUARE game for people who want to have something to root for as they follow a sport they enjoy.
SPORTS BETTING is a business. What I do isn’t about groceries. This is a big money battle against the sportsbooks that rewards hard work, expertise and true insights into what causes teams to win or lose. Everybody knows Clayton Kershaw is an excellent pitcher. When you should bet on him? When should you bet against him? When should you bet Under the total because both he and the opposing starting pitcher are likely to throw gems?
Fantasy Sports is elementary school. Sports betting is the real world. I created my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping to help you graduate into that real world and be a success.
To the degree there’s some overlap between the fields…here are some quick tips for those of you who ARE involved in both and want to apply your Fantasy research to the daily betting lines.
*If you see that a relatively unheralded pitcher is ideally suited to have a great game because of the opponent and the ballpark, AND he’s value-priced on the moneyline….then you should obviously consider betting on him. If he’s backed by a quality offense that’s likely to give him run support…you can even bet on him big. Obviously you don’t need to be involved in Fantasy Baseball to find examples like this. But, if you ARE, you might as well use what you find.
*If you see that a potent offense is ideally suited to post big numbers against a vulnerable opposing pitcher, AND that offense isn’t high priced because they’re not throwing a big arm on their own…then you can think about either betting that team to go Over its team total…or taking that team AND the Over in a relatively safe combination. Let’s say Toronto’s offense lines up against a “pitch to contact” hurler in good hitting weather. Take Toronto over their team total of 4.5 or 5…or take Toronto at a reasonable moneyline price as well as Over 9 or 9.5. If Toronto scores its runs, you’ll either go 1-1 or 2-0 with your combination (no harm or a sweep). Obviously you win the team total if you have access to those.
There are some compatibilities. And, it’s high time places like ESPN finally started talking about what the betting markets were saying. Just remember to keep things in perspective. We’re here to make big money from sportsbooks, not to win a glorified office pool featuring beer drinkers chowing down on Buffalo wings.
We’ll be talking baseball and football through the rest of the summer. The pennant races are starting to heat up in very interesting fashion…and the money you make in the Fall in football will be directly related to how much preparation work you do in June, July, and August.
Those of you who’d like help finding the best baseball bets on the board every night can sign up for my personal service. Top releases can be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your hard work and attendance. I’ve been making a living as a handicapper for more than 40 years. I’m very confident that many of you will be able to follow in my footsteps if you use proven winning techniques. And, THAT isn’t a Fantasy!
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters