Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, June 16, 2015 at 1:00 PM
There’s a sense of finality heading into Game Six of the 2015 NBA Finals that may be putting a damper on Las Vegas betting. Fans of the Cleveland Cavaliers no long believe their Cinderella story is going to have a happy ending. They’re not all that motivated to bet the team as a show of support when they just lost money doing so the last two games. Fans of the Golden State Warriors are on top of the world because they think a championship is imminent…and because they’re positioned to win their “series” bets on the heels of cashing the last two games.
So, “square” money just isn’t that interested in Tuesday night’s game relative to the rest of the series. That may change later in the day as “locals” who are rooting for the California team invest a bit for entertainment purposes. The energy is gone from this series.
What about the sharps? They’ve made it a habit to wait until late in the process to let opinions be known in this series. It’s dangerous to just assume they’ll leave the game alone. But, we’re also dealing with a group that was well-positioned with “series” or “futures” bets (particularly those who got better odds to go the distance in earlier rounds). Many will earn big scores tonight without betting because those earlier investments will win. They’ll only step in one way or the other this evening if there’s a very good reason to do so.
Game Six: Golden State at Cleveland Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET on ABC
Offshore spots opened at Golden State -4. That was immediately bet to -4.5, where it opened at many Las Vegas spots. That’s where we stand as I write this because there hasn’t been much betting interest yet. You could call it a “soft” tug-of-war between Golden State -4 and Cleveland +4.5.
Will we see heavy action this afternoon? That’s happened enough in the past in close-out games that I wouldn’t be surprised. If the most respected sharp influences come to the conclusion that Golden State is going to wrap this thing up tonight in impressive fashion…then we may have another bandwagon scenario that sees the line rise to -5 and conceivably higher. Once something like that gets started, there wouldn’t be much resistance from Cleveland money.
The only scenario I can imagine for a bandwagon effect on Cleveland would be a late announcement about a Golden State injury or some other issue. Best expectations are that we stand pat around Golden State -4.5…or a bandwagon starts in the hours right before tip-off keyed by respected sharps. Keep an eye on the market to so you can see if that storyline is developing.
The Over/Under has dropped from 195 to 194. Game Five actually landed on 195, which is the first time in a while a Golden State total has been near the market price. It took a lot of made three-pointers and a high scoring fourth quarter to get there. Close-out games often slow down because the leading team runs clock in the fourth quarter. That reality has discouraged Over money here.
You can purchase my Tuesday NBA selection(s) and evening baseball right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about combination packages, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during regular business hours. Baseball’s been a lot of fun to handicap so far this season. I hope you’ll consider betting the bases from now until the start of football in a couple of months.
I’ll either be back with you midday Friday for Game Seven from Oakland…or in a few weeks to talk about the first football numbers that go up in Las Vegas. Later this month, sportsbooks will post regular season win totals for many major college football teams (you can bet that the team will win more or less than that total), as well as “Game of the Year” lines for marquee matchups. The limits on these bets are fairly low. But, they’re a lot of fun to study. And, many sharps do bet these because they see them as “free money.” You won’t find many Wise Guys who turn down free money!
Thanks for reading! See you later this week or later this month.
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