Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, June 8, 2015 at 1:00 PM
It’s hard to imagine a bigger market misread than we’ve had so far in the 2015 NBA Finals. The Golden State Warriors were favored by six points at home in the first game, and then eight points in Game Two after Kyrie Irving was lost to the Cleveland Warriors for the postseason. Yet, each game ended in a regulation tie. And, the posted totals overshot the mark by 8 and 26 points!
This was a series where all relevant influences had more than a week to get things figured out!
Just goes to show you…it is possible to beat the Vegas number even in high profile events because:
*Oddsmakers aren’t as smart as they think they are
*Members of this new generation of quants aren’t as smart as they think they are
*The general public is MUCH less smart than they think they are
*Sports betting is complicated!
I was very pleased with my Game Two reads…as a dog and Under combination cashed for my clients. As we talked about last time…defense has been a very big factor that’s keeping this series competitive so far. And, the Cavaliers haven’t had a chance yet to let fatigue knock them out of the series (though, it did prevent a Game One cover in overtime when they ran out of gas).
What’s going to happen moving forward? Are these teams actually dead even…and we’re going to have nothing but nailbiters the rest of the way? Is Cleveland, in fact, the better team?! Hey, if you’re playing 48-minute ties on the road…at what’s supposed to be a tough home court for your opponent, that suggests you’re the better team! Or, are we about to see a zig-zag where schedule dynamics are going to loom very large.
I talked about this last time as well…and it’s about to come into play. Cleveland is obviously the less deep and more one-dimensional of the two teams. They’re most dangerous when rested, but vulnerable to problems if they get tired.
*Game One had a long rest break in front of it
*Game Two had a two-day rest break in front of it
*Games Three and Four will come after just one day off between
This is where we find out whether or not Cleveland really is capable of taking this series (Golden State is back to being a 2-1 favorite to lift the trophy at the moment). We know they can compete on the road when fresh. Can they hang tough as the wear and tear of this war takes its toll?
I’m not going to tip my hand about my plans this week. That information is for paying customers. I will tell you what you should be focused on in this week’s games Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday.
*Steph Curry’s shooting (he’s due to get hot!)
*Andrew Bogut’s struggles (he’s been a big disappointment)
*Steve Kerr’s adjustments (big results after losses to Memphis and Houston)
*A role player for Cleveland becoming a second-half shotmaker
The market still sees Golden State as a solid series favorite even though Cleveland technically has home court advantage for the moment. That tells you that the smartest influences still believe Golden State is the better team, and likely to make quality adjustments from this point forward. So, we know that’s “likely” to happen in terms of the big picture. But, Cleveland can definitely continue to disrupt Golden State if the Cavs keep hustling on defense, and keep taking advantage of Mozgov in the middle. Cleveland CAN win this series if Golden State doesn’t get its act together on offense. LeBron James knows what he’s doing. Many Warriors are still trying to figure that out.
If you’re a do-it-yourselfer here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, keep studying this series hard. Watch the games. Ideally, record the games and re-watch key plays over and over! Read the boxscores. Oddsmakers and quant-minded sharps are struggling so far. You need to exploit this soft market if you can.
If you’d like some help finding the best betting options in every game of the NBA Finals, you can purchase those right here at this very website with your major credit card. (And don’t forget about daily baseball!) Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Call during normal business hours any weekday, and be sure to ask about combination packages for the month of June, or through baseball’s All-Star Break.
I’m going to move our late-week get-together to Friday this week because Game Four of the NBA Finals will be played Thursday night. Given all the buzz around this series, it’s very likely we’ll have another “read and react” discussion at that time. I always try to keep the coursework connected to real-world sports betting. There’s no bigger story in Las Vegas right now than the NBA Finals. Let’s wait until Friday so we can have TWO games to review.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. What’s shaping up as a potentially historic NBA Finals will be very fun to handicap and bet. See you again Friday so we can stay on top of developments.
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