Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, May 14, 2015 at 1:00 PM
All four second round NBA Playoff series will see Game 6 action either Thursday or Friday Night. It’s possible that all will finish before the weekend, or that we could have a few dramatic Game Seven’s coming up Sunday and Monday (no games set for Saturday…enjoy the Preakness!)
Let’s see how sharps have been betting those sixth games. Matchups are presented in tip off order.
Cleveland at Chicago (Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN): An opener of Chicago -1 has been bet up to -2. I’ve seen some stores testing Chicago -2.5. Cleveland money starts to come in with the hook because of the competitiveness of this series. So, we may have a tug-of-war developing between Chicago -2 and Cleveland +2.5. We’ll see what happens between now and tip off. Chicago money was happy to get -1 and -1.5 in the must-win bounce back spot at home. The first two games at this site were both determined at the buzzer. It remains to be seen if Cleveland will bring everything tonight in hopes of wrapping things up…or will save themselves for a Game Seven Sunday at home that would come after a couple days of badly needed rest. The Over/Under has been bet down from 193 to 192. Sharps tend to look Under this late in any series.
Houston at LA Clippers (Thursday at 10:35 p.m. ET on ESPN): The Clippers have been bet up from -7.5 to -8.5 on the assumption that they’re going to bounce back strong after a horrible effort in Game Five. Their three victories came by 16, 25, and 33 points. So, line value may not be a major concern here. Houston money might come in at +9 given that the Rockets finally showed some life the last time out. Let’s see if the nine gets tested later Thursday. The Over/Under is up from 220 to 220.5 That’s against the flow of history (late series Unders), but consistent with a sequence that’s 5-0 to the Over so far landing on 218, 224, 223, 223, and 227. The market started out at 212 and 214 in this matchup, and is still chasing.
Atlanta at Washington (Friday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN): Not much betting action yet, with an opener of Washington -2.5 holding firm so far. That suggests there wasn’t sharp interest on the Wizards or we’d see a widely available -3 this morning. I would expect sharp money to hit the dog if three goes up. The return of John Wall allowed the Wizards to be competitive in Game Five on the road…but didn’t establish that the team is any kind of shoe-in to win Game Six at home. Atlanta money may settle for +2.5 by tipoff if that’s the best they’re going to see. Opening total of 197 hasn’t budged (though I have seen some 197.5’s out there). The two earlier games at this site landed on 204 and 207. But you saw how scoring can die late in a series in Game Five when the Wizards and Hawks could only reach 163.
Golden State at Memphis (Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN): There was a move to the favorite in this one, as Golden State opened at -4.5 and was bet up to -5. (Because this didn’t happen with the Wiz, we can deduce the sharps weren’t interested in Washington!). Golden State finally looked like championship material after dropping Game Three. They won Game Four on the road by 17, and then Game Five at home by 20. Sharps who think it ends now liked laying -4.5. Memphis money is waiting for injury news before deciding if it’s going to get involved. The Over/Under went up on the board at 194.5 and has been bet down to 193.5. This Western series has been the opposite of Rockets/Clippers. We’re 0-5 to the Under landing on 187, 187, 188, 185, and 176 against posted market totals all in the mid 190’s. Sometimes the quants can be stubborn about reacting to what’s happening on the floor. We’ve seen that in both Western series so far.
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Thanks for reading. I will be back with another sharps report on Sunday if there are any Game Sevens to discuss. If the only Game Seven is Washington at Atlanta (scheduled for Monday), I’ll wait until Monday to come back and talk about that game. Have a great weekend!
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