Submitted by Jim Hurley on Tuesday, April 28, 2015 at 7:00 PM
Who said Deron Williams was washed up? WE DID! And he probably still is. But, for one night…the veteran Brooklyn guard reminded everyone why he was so widely regarded in his younger days. Check out these stats from Brooklyn’s overtime win over Atlanta this past Monday night!
7 of 11 on treys (!!!)
Williams also had 5 fouls…which is a sign that he was actually guarding people rather than letting them run by. Clearly, he got tired of hearing all the bad press. And, it appears he felt awful about missing the clutch jumper in Atlanta that might have really rocked this series.
For now, the heavy series favorite and top seed Atlanta is still well-positioned to finish things off. That won’t happen Wednesday since we’re knotted up at two games apiece. But, Atlanta is currently a 9-point favorite in that one…and would be priced in similar fashion in a Game Seven on their home floor. Atlanta will be a smaller favorite in Game Six in Brooklyn of course. The market expects this one to finish Friday in Gotham.
Let’s run the full numbers from Game Four to see if there’s any hope for the Nets to spring a road shocker…
GAME FOUR STATS
Brooklyn 120, Atlanta 115 (in overtime)
Shooting Pct: Atlanta 48%, Brooklyn 48%
Three-Pointers: Atlanta 13/33, Brooklyn 14/31
Free Throws: Atlanta 10/15, Brooklyn 14/21
Rebounds: Atlanta 55, Brooklyn 40
Turnovers: Atlanta 16, Brooklyn 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6, total of 198
Atlanta actually entered the fourth quarter with an eight-point lead. That means they would have won easily if Deron Williams hadn’t put on his Superman cape. You can see that the Hawks re-found their three-point touch (shooting near 40% on treys is like shooting 60% on two-pointers). Atlanta won rebounding by a huge amount, but gave that away with turnovers.
Basically, it all comes down to this…
*If Atlanta can keep putting in treys at this pace, they’re likely to win a blowout Wednesday…and could easily coast to a 4-2 series win because there’s little chance that Deron Williams can pull that kind of rabbit out of his hat again. Atlanta just has to match regular season norms to coast. Actually…Atlanta didn’t play to its regular season norms in its first two home games and still swept.
*If Atlanta CAN’T consistently make treys…then we have a series. The Hawks are mortal when the bombs aren’t falling…which we saw in earlier action. Note that Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in this matchup because disappointing long range shooting has made them fairly ordinary. Hawks fans have to be terrified that the team is having so much trouble with BROOKLYN! A #8 seed in a very weak conference.
Let’s see what the market says…
Las Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9, total of 200
That’s a projected final score of 104.5 to 95.5…suggesting decent but not overwhelming shooting from the Hawks. That’s actually a strike against Atlanta’s defense. The market sure has soured on that side of the ball with this group.
JIM HURLEY has an encyclopedia of trend and stat information that tells him all about expectations in Game Five scenarios. That will certainly come into play at a spread of this size. How often do #1 seeds finally get rolling after sluggish starts? NETWORK KNOWS!
You can purchase the final word for Wednesday (top plays from this game plus Game Five of Portland/Memphis in the West…and plenty of baseball) right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about extended service, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours.
We’ve made some tweaks to the planned schedule since Chicago/Milwaukee got interesting all of a sudden. Here’s what’s coming up over the next few days in the NOTEBOOK…
Thursday: Chicago at Milwaukee Game Six
Friday: Atlanta at Brooklyn Game Six
Saturday: LA Clippers at San Antonio Game Seven (if necessary), or possibly Bucks/Bulls if that series goes the distance while Clips/Spurs doesn’t.
Sunday: A second round series opener (unless Portland/Memphis goes the distance)
We definitely want to pop in on Chicago/Milwaukee because the Bucks are trending well…and because Chicago has now become a potential force in the East with the injury to Cleveland’s Kevin Love and the inconsistent play of Atlanta. You get the sense that Chicago lost Game Five to Milwaukee because they spent all day celebrating the media acclimation of a win over Cleveland in the next round! Take care of business first Bulls!
You know JIM HURLEY always takes care of business. He’ll find the best betting options on the board each and every night. He won’t win them all…nobody does. But, over the long haul…his exclusive TEAM HANDICAPPING approach has proven that it’s going to GET THE MONEY!
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