Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, April 27, 2015 at 5:45 PM
Still Burying Bookmakers In NBA Playoffs
Standing 8-2 Over Past 4 Days And Not About To Back Down From This Daily Battle Of Wits
Nationals Still 5-1 World Series Favorite But I'm Taking A Pass For A While - Washington Ranked 28th In Hitting, Pitching
Mayweather Remains -205 Favorite To Retain Title Saturday But Public Money Is On Pacquiao
By Kelso Sturgeon
The challenge of beating the NBA Playoffs is real but I am one who loves this daily battle of wits with bookmakers, working overtime to beat them at their own game by doing a better job of analysis on a day-to-day basis primarily because I understand winning is not in the numbers but is hidden in little things few seldom consider because they don't know about them. I am 8-2 with NBA releases the past four days and confident I will keep right on winning, just as I did during the regular season.
Six of the winners were underdogs (see below) and five of those 'dogs won straight up.
Betting numbers have been tighter than ever this season and even more so in the NBA playoffs but I have proved from Day One bettors can crush the professional game, just as one can bury bookmakers in college basketball.
It is all in those hidden elements - those that cannot be quantified and reduced to a number.
You can purchase my NBA selections by the day for prices ranging from $25 to $50, or purchase my NBA Package and play for the next five weeks, right through the championship series in June, for just $149, charged to your major credit cards. That package does include 50-unit, 100-unit and 200-unit plays, which sell for $50 per day.
Here is my NBA record for the past four days. 8-2 and 6 Underdog Winners
4/26...25 Units...Clippers (+6) 114, Spurs 105 (Won)
4/26...10 Units...Mavericks (+2.5) 121, Rockets 109 (Won)
4/25...50 Units...Hawks (-3) 83, Nets 91 (Lose)
4/25...10 Units...Grizzlies (+3) 115, Trail Blazers 109 (Won)
5/25...5 Units...Bucks (+4.5) 92, Bulls 90 (Won)
4/24...25 Units...Wizards (-4.5) 106, Raptors 99 (Won)
4/24...Rockets (+1) 130, Mavericks 128 (Won)
4/23...15 Units...Cavaliers (-5.5) 103, Celtics 95 (Won)
4/23...10 Units...Bucks (+2.5) 106, Bulls 113 (2OTs) (Lost)
4/23...Pelicans (+5.5) 119, Warriors 123 (OT) (Won)
Favored Washington Nationals Ruining Bettors
Please understand I am not yet writing off the Washington Nationals (7-12) who are the solid 5-1 favorites (down from 6-1) to win the World Series in October but for the time being I am staying away from them. They have lost five straight, four of those games as a favorite and a +100 in the fifth.
It hardly is the performance for a team that is supposed to have the best pitching rotation in the majors and a dramatically superior hitting lineup. At this writing, Washington hitting is ranked 28th of 30 teams with a team batting average of .218. This certainly has contributed in a major way to the team's pitching staff, which is respectably ranked 10th with an ERA of 3.55.
When the hitters and the pitchers get on the same page - if they do - I will be back in action.
Until them I won't be releasing the Nationals. For the record, I you have bet $100-per-game on Washington this season, you are out just over $800, the second worst figure in baseball, exceeding only by 5-15 Milwaukee which under the same scenario have lost $1,200.
In the money won department, the New York Mets have returned those betting $100 on each game a baseball best $970.
Vegas Bookmakers Look For $80 Million Handle on Mayweather-Pacquiao
The so-called "fight of the century" (the media/promoters thoughts - not mine) continues to grow in importance by the day and Las Vegas bookmakers say they expect to handle as much as $80 million on the fight, which would put it in the same betting league as the super Bowl.
It happens Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas where seats are currently going for from $1,500 each to $35,000 a pop. It matches reigning welterweight champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0) of Las Vegas and Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2) of the Philippines in a 12-round bout to unify the championship.
While Mayweather is currently a -205 favorite at some sports books, he is as low as -190 at others and the city's sharpest bookmakers say at fight time that number will drop to around -180. Thus far the public is sending it in on Pacquiao - the man in the white hat - and staying away from Mayweather who has a less-than-good reputation in Vegas and who is held in contempt by many since doing jail time for violence against the female gender.
Books report that as of Monday, most of the early action was on Pacquiao, who was a +185 at some places and a bit lower at others.
The fight will be the richest in boxing history, with somewhere between $350-400 million taken in from the gate and more than 3 million pay-per-view subscribers who will ante up $99.95 to watch it at home.
Betting The NBA This Week
As the NBA shifts from first-round play to the conference semifinals, I am very cautiously waiting to announce what my daily plays will be. There are just too many things happening on a day to day basis. Rest assured, however, between now and this weekend I will be releasing daily plays rated from 15 units to 100-units. You will just have to check each day to see where I am going.
As always, when I find the spot - and they will be there - where we have the edges to merit 50-unit and 100-unit plays, I will let you know and we will blast away. Again, just check this website each day to see what the betting menu is, because I intend to keep right on winning.