Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, April 20, 2015 at 1:00 PM
If the opening weekend of the 2015 NBA Playoffs is any indication, handicappers and sports bettors may be in for some very one-sided first round series that lack drama and intensity. It’s dangerous to draw conclusions from just one game. But, when that one game is consistent with issues that had been present prior to the postseason…then you can draw safer conclusions.
Some quick examples:
*BROOKLYN isn’t a playoff caliber team by traditional standards. If you’re #8 in the East, you’re pretty bad! Even while covering a spread, they didn’t look at all like a team that was ready to scare Atlanta. The Hawks were very sluggish down the stretch while coasting to a non-cover win.
*BOSTON isn’t a playoff caliber team either. Great bunch of kids who are going to hustle their butts off. But, in a normal season, they’d already be on vacation and thinking about next year. They can hang with the Cavs for spurts when their three-pointers are falling. Otherwise, they’re not a real threat unless LeBron James or Kyrie Irving get hurt.
*MILWAUKEE’s inexperience and lack of offense was a huge problem in their opener against Chicago. They’re not a playoff caliber team either by traditional standards, and their particular weaknesses are even a bigger issue in playoff-style basketball. They may have a moment or two in this series…but the Bulls will have to fall back for things to get truly interesting.
*DALLAS was in awful form down the stretch by Western Conference standards. There’s no chemistry on the team. Dirk’s age is really showing on defense. Rajon Rondo was a gamble that didn’t work. Can they play a solid 48-minute game more than once in their matchup with Houston?
*PORTLAND has been decimated by injuries, and didn’t look like a team that can win four games in the next six from Memphis. Too bad…because the Blazers deserved better luck. You have to play with whoever suits up. Tough draw in a killer conference.
*NEW ORLEANS impressed me Saturday with their come-from-way-behind effort. But, they’re just flat overmatched by the outstanding Golden State Warriors. You can’t really point to a glaring negative with the Pelicans, outside of inexperience. This isn’t a team that’s imploding before our eyes or anything. But, can they make this a truly compelling series? For now, that’s unlikely.
I talked last time here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping about how THE MOTIVATION FACTOR can take the form of towel-tossers having no motivation as a series progresses. I think handicappers need to pay very close attention to how the teams I just listed up above perform in their Game Two challenges Monday through Wednesday. Pointspreads project those teams to lose Game Two. That sets up the following when they head home with little hope:
*A no-show as early as Game Three (though I wouldn’t expect that to be universal)
*A no-show in Game Four letdown if they happened to win Game Three
*A definite no-show in Game Four if they fall behind 3-0!
Clearly I’ll be stepping out on some good teams at affordable prices in Game Fours. That’s next week. THIS week, I’m already studying blowout possibilities in Games Two and Three for exploiting teams who may have already tossed their towels. There are some teams that just don’t have workable options for providing sustained competition in their current matchups. You saw how often the Vegas line missed the mark by wide margins in the opening weekend. That’s likely to continue.
*Study the teams I outlined above from a perspective of boxscore “hustle” stats in their series openers. If you see teams getting outclassed on the boards, getting outscored in fast-break points, and getting outplayed in the turnover department...when they’re supposed to be EXCITED about Game One…you can only imagine what’s going to happen when the doldrums really kick in.
*Study the teams I outlined above from a perspective of “two-point defense.” Once a team loses its fight, it tends to give up a lot of easy buckets. They get surprised for backdoor cuts. They don’t rotate to stop jumpers. They don’t help quickly enough if an opposing star has a matchup advantage. Bad chemistry shows up with soft inside defense!
We’ll talk more basketball in the coming days and weeks. Though, if things are this one-sided through the full first round, I may pop in with a baseball report earlier than expected. There’s no reason to go beyond the obvious if the obvious is working. This may be a season where the NBA Playoffs don’t really hit high gear until the conference finals when the market favorites finally run into each other.
If you’d like some help finding the best NBA Playoff picks every day, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. I hope you’ll save some time to ask about extended packages for both basketball and baseball.
I’ll see you again at the end of the week. That’s likely to be another basketball discussion based on what happens in all of the “Game Two” scenarios Monday-Wednesday. As The Dean of Sports Handicapping, I always try to keep course work tied to what’s happening in the headlines to maximize your real world impact. I’m certainly staying on top of baseball developments and will call an audible if justified. Talk to you again Thursday.
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