Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, April 2, 2015 at 4:00 PM
As promised, I’m back to offer you do-it-yourselfers some homework for handicapping this weekend’s Final Four action. What you learn today should help you find value in Saturday’s semifinals, and then Monday when the winner’s meet for the National Championship. This will be my last college basketball class of the season. Our coursework in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping will transition to Major League Baseball and the NBA Playoffs beginning next week.
We’ve talked a lot about handicapping college basketball over the past few months. I’m not going to rehash all that. You should already know about the importance of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS at this level. THE MOTIVATION FACTOR isn’t an issue because everyone’s fired up for the Final four. We have four coaching Hall-of-Famers in Indianapolis, so nobody’s going to be overmatched tactically (though, I may have something up my sleeve regarding that angle for my clients). What’s left to do?
Here’s your homework for the hours between now and Saturday’s action.
Review every boxscore from the tournament for these four teams. It’s probably okay if you throw out the 1-16 games for the top seeds…because those were relatively garbage games compared to what’s left. But, you want to know specifically:
*How does each team win?
*What are the focal point(s) of each team’s offense?
*How well does each team defend?
*How much “meaningful” depth does each team have in its rotation?
*What percentage of points come from fickle three-pointers?
*What percentage of points come from earning free throw attempts?
It’s not enough to know that these teams are very good. You need to know HOW and WHY they’ve lasted this long so you can evaluate their chances to continue winning when matched against other elite teams. Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Michigan State will all be facing their toughest tests yet…and Duke might be as well because MSU might win a three-way round robin with Gonzaga and Utah regardless of what the seedings suggested.
Once you’ve dealt with the bullet points above, go back and re-read the boxscores from a different perspective. Look for WEAKNESSES. If you were an opposing coach, how would YOU attack this team?
*Where are the soft spots?
*Are opponents scoring too easily on two-point baskets?
*Are opponents marching to the free throw line?
*Are opponents committing too few turnovers?
*Can this team handle foul trouble if the refs get whistle crazy?
You really need to think like a coach…particularly in the Saturday semifinals because each head coach has had all week to develop a gameplan. Maybe true talent and the ability to handle physical and emotional fatigue takes over Monday Night. Saturday, it’s all about strengths and weaknesses for fresh teams lining up to determine which teams are best suited to thrive. Find that team in each game, and the winners pick themselves. (If you’re lucky, the Over/Unders will pick themselves too!)
I’m not going to get any more specific than I already have because I have to protect my service plays for my paying clients. I can tell you this is shaping up as one of my biggest Final Fours ever in terms of profit potential. I’m very excited about the matchups…and it wouldn’t be a shocker to me if BOTH games end missing the pointspread by at least five points because of the dynamics in play. Either dog could win. Either favorite could win by double digits. The more YOU study, the more likely you are to figure out which way the wind is going to blow in each game.
Who will KELSO STURGEON be backing? You have to sign up to find out! You can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Please check on rates for the NBA Playoffs and Major League Baseball when you call. Long term packages always offer the most bang for your buck.
I’ll see you early next week for the start of Major League Baseball. The Dean of Sports Handicapping would like to encourage every one of you reading this to think very seriously about betting baseball this summer. I know many of you prefer football and basketball. But, baseball is the single biggest PROFIT sport for many professional wagerers because the busy daily schedules and the long season provide a great opportunity to pick winners and pyramid your bankrolls. Football is basically a weekend sport in the fall. Baseball goes seven days a week for SIX MONTHS, and then you have the playoffs in the seventh month.
For you basketball only people, our coursework will return to the hardwood when the NBA Playoffs start in a few weeks. Pay your taxes…then come back for more basketball! If any of you are college basketball “only” until football arrives because you don’t enjoy the NBA, thanks very much for attending these classes. I hope you found them helpful and productive. See you next week when the umpires yell “Batter Up!”
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Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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