Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, March 31, 2015 at 10:00 AM
Because of the big response to my March Madness market reports, I scheduled this special update for the Final Four of the NIT. I’ll have two more basketball reports this college season….late this week for the NCAA’s Final Four…and then a special game day market assessment on Monday for the National Championship showdown.
The NIT is much different than the NCAA tourney in terms of public interest. There’s very little square action hitting the board because
*We don’t have high profile media teams
*We don’t have tourists coming in from all over the country to bet the games
*We don’t have big weekend crowds for a quiet Tuesday/Thursday wrap-up
If you see a line move in an NIT semifinal or final, except in rare seasons where a public team makes it to the Final Four, it’s a SHARP move. The public just isn’t involved except for a token presence. Locals who do make bets don’t have enough respect from sportsbooks to budge a number. Sharps making statements will definitely move a number!
Let’s see how the numbers have been moving so far in Tuesday’s TV twinbill…
Temple vs. Miami (7 p.m. ET, 4 p.m. in Las Vegas)
Important move here as we’ve flipped favorites. Miami of the ACC opened at -1. As I put together this report for you late Monday night, I’m now seeing Temple -1.5. Of course, basketball games can’t end in a tie because of overtime. But, “pick-em” can a stopping point when a line starts to move. It didn’t stop at pick-em here.
Sharps may start to buy back if the two is breached. They may not get the chance because oddsmakers know that’s the case…and they don’t want to set up a big differential where games landing on one either way or Temple -2 would hurt the book.
Imagine that the line does move to Temple -2…
*If Miami wins by 1, all that early Temple pushes, and late Miami money wins
*If Temple wins by 1, all that early Temple money wins, as does the late Miami money
*If Temple wins by 2, all that early Temple money wins, and the buy back on Miami pushes
If you see Temple -2…it means Wise Guy kept pouring in on Temple, and sportsbooks desperately need some Miami action and were willing to take a bigger risk of getting middled.
The Over/Under opened at 139.5. It’s been bet down a half a point. Markets have long adjusted now to the 30-second shot clocks in this event. Offshore was caught napping on opening night. So far, we’ve seen an increase in scoring from the regular season…which is what the powers-that-be were hoping for. Most quants had this one close to the opener or we would have seen a bigger move.
Stanford vs. Old Dominion: (9:30 p.m. ET, 6:30 p.m. in Las Vegas)
Stanford opened at -2, and was bet up to -2.5. Again, this wasn’t in advance of anticipated public action…because sharps know that the public won’t be very interested here. Perhaps some Pac 12 money will take a flyer on the Cardinal. It wouldn’t be substantial enough to factor into the position-taking equation. Sharps who liked Stanford bet the opener. I’m confident that underdog money would come in on ODU +3. Some of the hardcore hoops bettors in town thought ODU should have received a Dance bid instead of settling for one of the top spots in the NIT (ODU and Temple were both #1 seeds, Miami and Stanford were both #2 seeds). That dog money may have to settle for +2.5.
Not much happening on the total. The opener of 135 is still up at many spots. Some have tested 135.5 to see if it generates any nibbles. I wouldn’t expect any dramatic game-day moves on either total unless some injury news is announced. Sharps have had plenty of time to express their opinions at reasonable limits.
You can purchase my personal selections in Tuesday’s NIT (plus the best from the NBA) right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about extended service, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Don’t forget that Major League Baseball starts Sunday Night!
Thanks for reading. I’ll see you again at the end of the week for the NCAA’s Final Four. Those lines at the moment:
Kentucky by 5 over Wisconsin, total of 131
Duke by 5 over Michigan State, total of 139
I’ll go more in depth on Wise Guy betting in that late-week report. And then, on Monday, we’ll bring the college basketball season to an end. Great tournament so far in my favorite sport to evaluate. Looking forward to a big weekend. In terms of the NIT Finals Thursday…you already know that any moves will be SHARP moves! Monitor the markets and you’ll know how the Wise Guys are playing.
Thanks for reading today and all through the college basketball postseason. I’m definitely planning some NBA reports when the playoffs arrive. The Western Conference brackets are going to be loaded. And, I can already tell you that the Championships Finals will be creating quite a buzz here in Las Vegas if LeBron James and Cleveland are matched against any of the Western powers.
See you in a few days. Plenty of great basketball still ahead!
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