Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 2:00 PM
The sports world is thinking more clearly Wednesday about the sad news involving Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls. He’ll be undergoing knee surgery for a damaged meniscus soon, and may have to miss the rest of the season. When the story first broke, you’d have thought that the best player in the league had suffered a career ending injury.
While basketball lovers are sad about Rose’s very poor injury luck, the market has no sympathies. Pricing made it very clear how much Rose is “worth” in betting terms.
Tuesday Opener: Chicago -9 vs. Charlotte (before injury announcement)
Settled Wednesday Line: Chicago -7.5 vs. Charlotte
He’s not a 3-4 point player like LeBron James or Steph Curry. Some might argue that’s an over-adjustment because the hobbled Rose hasn’t been playing very well this season. He’s had a few fantastic outings. But, full-season production isn’t anything special compared to most big name players, particularly when you factor in his fading defense. One of the reasons Chicago is 26-31 ATS this season is that the market has been giving Rose and the Bulls too much credit as a potential Eastern power.
If you were watching media coverage right after the announcement, you heard various pundits talking about how this killed Chicago’s chances to win a championship this year. They weren’t going to win a championship anyway! They were power-rated at least a bucket below Cleveland and Atlanta already, and would have been in the same situation against the eventual Western champs even if they had scored upsets in the East.
And, sharps in particularly weren’t high on this team:
*Rose was nowhere near his past level of performance
*Pau Gasol isn’t seen as a “winner” in terms of gut-check basketball
*Tom Thibodeaux wears down his starters with extreme minute counts
*Cleveland is surging to even higher heights of late
*Atlanta has more depth and weaponry
It’s very clear that a lot of ESPN’s pundits don’t even watch the games! If only they lived out here in Las Vegas and had to bet their bloviations.
If you were keeping your own Power Ratings, you should drop the Bulls about 1.5 points. That doesn’t turn them from a playoff team into pretender. Actually, in the East, it doesn’t do anything in terms of placement! Chicago will still be priced as a #4 to #5 type seed. They’re still well clear of mediocrity in that conference, and light years ahead of the tankers. If they do face Cleveland or Atlanta in the playoffs, the lines will be about a bucket different.
What about futures prices? You’ve probably heard that Chicago has dropped from about 8-1 to about 20-1 to win title. Be aware that 8-1 was not a price sharps were betting. It was there to lure in “square” money from Chicago rooting interests (a great gambling history in that town!). Sharps believed the “true” odds of Chicago going the distance was much worse than 8-1 given the reasons I outlined above. Chicago sentimentalists were being charged a premium on a team that arguably isn’t even top 10 in the league when everyone’s healthy (meaning…when OKC has Kevin Durant in the lineup, when LAC has Blake Griffin, etc…)
On a personal level, we can all be saddened when a great athlete suffers through extended bad injury luck. To the degree you treat sports betting as a profession, you need to know that the market thinks Rose is worth only about 1.5 points…and that the market had been slightly overrating Rose and the Bulls this year anyway.
The NBA can be quite a challenge right now since so many prominent players are dealing with injuries. If you’d like some help finding the best plays on the board in the pros and colleges you can purchase my nightly BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business and talk to my representative. This is the ideal time to get set up for all basketball through March Madness. February is about to end!
Thanks for reading. We’ll definitely be much more active here in the blog when the tournaments arrive on the college basketball schedule. Wanted to check in today to give you the market perspective on the Derrick Rose news that’s still in the national headlines as this article goes up. If only the mainstream would look at pointspreads! What the media misses is what drives up profits for sharps. Keep that in mind the next time you’re listening to pundits on studio shows. They couldn’t make a living betting their opinions. Hook up with people who can!
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