Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 2:00 PM
There was a lot of buzz earlier this week when the first Regular Season Win Props went up for the 2015 Major League Baseball season. It’s not that baseball is a huge betting sport here in Las Vegas. But, those win totals are popular with sharps who do bet the bases because they’re seen as a six month investment that pays off great returns.
Think of it this way. If you put “x” amount of dollars in the bank, what’s it going to be worth in October? Given interest rates these days…you’ll be looking at a very slight uptick. But, if you make smart bets on your win total bets…going 6-4 or better at soft openers…that same money would generate a much larger return by the time October rolls around on the calendar.
A lot of squares don’t have the patience to wait that long to see how their bets do, nor the expertise to go at least 6-4 against soft openers. The Wise Guys use Vegas sportsbooks as a “bank” that pays good interest with these.
I’ve gathered the openers from two different sources. The Westgate put their first numbers up Sunday. William Hill just put them up a few hours before I wrote this. You’ll be able to see how William Hill reacted to action bet against the LVH openers.
NATIONAL LEAGUE REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
Washington: opened 93 at Westgate, 94 with William Hill
LA Dodgers: opened 92.5 at Westgate, 94 with William Hill
St. Louis: opened 88.5 at Westgate, 89 with William Hill
San Diego: opened 85.5 at Westgate, 83.5 with William Hill
San Francisco: opened 84.5 at Westgate, 84.5 with William Hill
Pittsburgh: opened 83.5 at Westgate, 84.5 with William Hill
Chicago Cubs: opened 82.5 at Westgate, 83 with William Hill
NY Mets: opened 81.5 at Westgate, 81 with William Hill
Miami: opened 81.5 at Westgate, 81.5 with William Hill
Let’s stop there because those are the teams projected to finish over .500 in the regular season (81-81). The market sees Washington, the Dodgers, and St. Louis as favorites to win their divisions. No surprise there. Casual fans may be surprised that San Diego rates as Wildcard caliber. They’ve made some moves in the offseason that suggest they’re ready to contend. The big buzz in Vegas was about THE CUBS! There are a lot of people with Chicago roots in this city (particularly in the media). And, there are a lot of oldtimers that became fans way back in the WGN Superstation days when every game was televised in the afternoon. Many sharps like what they’ve seen with that team’s development, and were ready to bet as soon as a number went up. Reports say that Vegas books are taking more bets on the Cubs to win the World Championship than any other team so far.
Continuing with the rest of the senior circuit…
Milwaukee: opened 78.5 at Westgate, 79.5 with William Hill
Cincinnati: opened 78 at Westgate, 78 with William Hill
Atlanta: opened 73.5 at Westgate, 74.5 with William Hill
Arizona: opened 72 at Westgate, 71.5 with William Hill
Colorado: opened 71.5 at Westgate, 72 with William Hill
Philadelphia: opened 68.5 at Westgate, 69.5 with William Hill
Historically, one of the lower teams comes out playing much better than expected. These early numbers can be overly influenced by the doldrums of the prior season. See if you can pick which projected also-ran is going to be a surprise contender.
AMERICAN LEAGUE REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
LA Angles: opened 89.5 at Westgate, 89.5 with William Hill
Seattle: opened 87.5 at Westgate, 87.5 with William Hill
Boston: opened 86 at Westgate, 85.5 with William Hill
Detroit: opened 84.5 at Westgate, 84 with William Hill
Cleveland: opened 84.5 at Westgate, 83 with William Hill
Toronto: opened 82.5 at Westgate, 83.5 with William Hill
Baltimore: opened 81.5 at Westgate, 83 with William Hill
NY Yankees: opened 81.5 at Westgate, 81.5 with William Hill
Chicago White Sox: opened 81.5 at Westgate, 82 with William Hill
Oakland: opened 80.5 at Westgate, 83 with William Hill
Kansas City: opened 79.5 at Westgate, 80.5 with William Hill
Tampa Bay: opened 79.5 at Westgate, 79.5 with William Hill
Texas: opened 78.5 at Westgate, 78 with William Hill
Houston: opened 75 at Westgate, 76.5 with William Hill
Minnesota: opened 71.5 at Westgate, 72 with William Hill
Tougher to split the AL up because there’s not an obvious split in the middle. Parity looks to be the story of the day with nobody projected to reach 90 wins…and only one team projected to win less than 75. Look at that big hunk of teams between 78.5 and 82.5. That’s just a stone’s throw from the .500 mark in either direction.
Oakland wasn’t getting much respect at the Westgate. You can see that William Hill had them up in Wildcard territory a few days later. Chicago money was also influencing the White Sox…which means things could get very interesting this year in the Windy City.
Should YOU bet regular season win totals? Only if you’ve done the work and have an informed opinion! Here’s what you should take from today’s discussion.
*Sharps do the work ahead of time so they can attack soft openers
*Sharps look for smart “investments” rather than bets to root for
*Sharps don’t mind letting a sportsbook “hold their money” for six months if there’s going to be a nice return at the end of the rainbow.
We’ll talk more about baseball once April rolls around. Wanted to check in with you today since the win totals were creating so much buzz here in town this week. I’m still trying to find discussion points for college basketball. Sportsbooks are in kind of a lull until the tournaments show up on the schedule. Only the hardest core basketball bettors are active right now. And, they’re not making their presence felt in the line on a regular schedule. Sometimes it’s early. Sometimes it’s late.
Hopefully my clients and I will be making our presence felt in the markets through the month of February. You can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business.
I’ll check in with you again in the near future with some basketball notes. I can assure you that coverage of sharp action will be very intense through March Madness. Thanks for reading.
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