Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, January 26, 2015 at 7:00 PM
The big game is now just days away. You hardworking students in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping have some homework you need to be attending to. Here are some ideas to get you started. I’ll be back again later in the week to talk more specifically about this coming matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
STUDY RECENT SUPER BOWLS
Super Bowls are a unique animal. You can’t expect to handicap them using regular season principals, or even normal playoff principles. You have to take those principles and turn them up to 11. Review the boxscores and game summaries of at least the last five Super Bowls. And, since New England hasn’t won one in 10 years, it’s probably best to go back and see what worked form them when they did win.
Keep a close eye on:
*Run/Pass percentages (both plays and total yardage)
*Which “styles” perform best
*Which “styles” perform worst
*How teams change their stripes if they fall behind by at least 10 points
*How turnovers happen, and WHEN they happen
It’s really important that you refresh your memory about the specific dynamics of a Super Bowl. Reviewing these games will help. The more you have time to review, the more you learn.
STUDY THE PERFORMANCE OF RECENT SUPER BOWL MVP’S
I’m always emphasizing the importance of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS when making your picks in all sports. Go back and look at which men performed this role when leading their teams to victories. What was unique about them? What set them apart from other stars in the spotlight? What did they bring to the table that was most troublesome for opposing defenses? How often was one guy the “tiebreaker,” and how often was on guy the driving force in leading a blowout?
Once you’ve done this work, take what you’ve learned and apply it to this Sunday’s rosters. Which potential breakout player best matches the MVP’s of the past? I really like how this particular approach helps you come through the backdoor to find a great team side pick. Don’t pick a team, and then assume their star will be the MVP. Find the player best suited to or positioned for winning the MVP, and then pick his team!
STUDY RECENT OVER/UNDER TENDENCIES IN SUPER BOWLS
There was a stretch of Super Bowls many years ago where it was “Favorite and Over” almost every season. Sportsbooks got killed because that’s who the public likes betting on. This was an era where great game conditions allowed superior offenses to score at will on the way to blowouts. If you knew who was best able to post a big number in good scoring conditions (typically the favorite back then), the selections made themselves.
It’s not that simple these days…but that’s because teams are different. The basic dynamic is still in play. Whoever’s going to control the scoring style of the game will be best positioned to win and cover. Review how that’s worked out in recent Super Bowls…then put both of this year’s team through the process. Perhaps this will be another “backdoor” method. You figure out which total play makes the most sense…and that tells you which team side is going to cover.
You really have to look at a Super Bowl from all angles. Turn it sideways, upside down, check under the hood. You know both teams are going to show up with peak intensity. Nobody’s flat for a Super Bowl! The MOTIVATION FACTOR cancels out. It’s going to be PLAYMAKERS, GAMEBREAKERS, and the essence of X’s and O’s that will determine which team wins and covers this Sunday. Since the game is so close to pick-em…we KNOW that the winner is most likely to cover barring last second line movements.
I’ll have some more homework for you later in the week specifically tied to the Patriots and Seahawks. I’ll definitely have a strong personal selection in the game this weekend…but I can’t post that for free in our coursework. That wouldn’t be fair to all of my paying customers. The goal here is to teach YOU how to be a winning Las Vegas bettor. If you find that you need some help over the weekend, you’ll be able to purchase my game day assessment right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
I hope you’ll do the smart thing and build your bankrolls with basketball between now and kickoff. I’m not passing the baskets just because I’m talking so much about football this week! You regular students should be taking advantage of what we’ve learned this season and in the past on the hardwood. Again, assistance is just a few clicks away if you want to invest in my personal picks.
One of the best things about living in Las Vegas is that you get to experience Super Bowl Week every year! There’s so much excitement about this year’s game already…and it’s only going to get more intense between now and kickoff. Don’t get caught up in the hype. Put that energy to good use by following the guidance of The Dean of Sports Handicapping. Make some basketball money…then attack the edges you find Sunday in the Super Bowl. We’ll talk more about that the next time we’re together. See you then.
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters