Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, January 23, 2015 at 2:00 PM
There’s been so much interest in Super Bowl betting in this first week of activity that I decided to put together a special report explaining how sharps have been betting thus far. There’s still a lot ahead…and this early action may only be a head fake for what’s to come. But, for now, we’ve seen very clear Wise Guy tendencies at the available prices.
*On the team side, sharps like New England getting points. The first numbers up offshore were Seattle -3 or Seattle -2.5. Oddsmakers really expected the pre-championship perceptions of the teams to hold…and those perceptions were Seahawks by a field goal. Sharps hit the Patriots hard at the available limits…possibly in anticipation of public action on a New England team that played much better Sunday. But, sharps who legitimately liked the Patriots believed they wouldn’t see anything better. They took points while they were available.
*On the Over/Under, it’s only been Under money coming in from sharps. The opening total of 49 has been bet down to 48. We can assume that’s where the quants made the game. There will be no weather influences because of the retractable roof in Phoenix. It’s very important to note that sharps didn’t wait for the public to bet the Over. Historically, squares (the general public) load up on the Over because they like rooting for points (and because it WORKED for so many years!). Sharps didn’t wait to see if 50 or better would come into play. They happily took the 49 with confidence.
As I write this late Friday morning Las Vegas time, I’m seeing Pick-em and 48, with some stores showing New England -1.
*On the team side, Seattle money is waiting to come in at the best possible number. Sharps preferring to bet on defense and the running game are hoping the public drives the Patriots even higher. Maybe +1 is the best they’re going to see. Maybe +2 or more will come into play before the weekend. The main thing to remember is that sharp New England money is already accounted for, and will only return if the public pushes Seattle back to being the favorite. I do believe we’ll see some noteworthy investments on the Seahawks in the days, or hours before kickoff.
*On the total, sharps will fade any public moves toward the Over off the 48. They know that Carolina/Seattle only made it to 48…and that was with the help of an interception return TD. Green Bay/Seattle was a dead nuts Under until that crazy ending. New England has shown that they don’t often get into high scoring shootouts away from home against teams with good defenses. The fact that sharps didn’t wait to bet the Under tells you a lot. Sharps LOVE this Under at 49 or higher, and will come back in if 49 is broached again.
I’ll be back again next Friday to talk more about the Super Bowl side and total. I’m planning a special early week report to discuss general strategies for Super Bowl props. There are far too many to discuss individually in terms of sharp action. But, I will tell you what I’ve learned in general about how sharps bet propositions.
Between now and the Super Bowl, I hope you’ll build your bankrolls with my best basketball plays. It’s silly to wait until after the Super Bowl ends before you start betting the baskets. Don’t be a square who only bets March Madness. Sharps bet nightly basketball, and YOU should too!
You can purchase my basketball BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about personal service, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155 any weekday during normal business hours or Saturdays and Sundays before the first game tips off.
There’s already a lot of excitement in Las Vegas about this game. And, I’ll be very interested to see how much money finds its way here from the site itself. It’s just a short flight from Las Vegas to Phoenix…and anyone with an inkling to can find a way to back their preferences. If you were travelling to the Super Bowl to watch in person, wouldn’t you want to spend some time in Vegas first to place a big bet? Then you can fly back on your way home to collect. I can assure you some of the rich and famous will be doing that.
Keep reading Vegas-Sports-Masters through the week for great handicapping tips for the big game. I’ll keep you posted on important market developments. Between now and kickoff, let’s make some money in the baskets!
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