Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, January 5, 2015 at 4:00 PM
I can’t recall when I’ve seen so many extreme records against the spread in college basketball this deep into a season. You have Seton Hall at 12-1 ATS through its first 13 board games. Richmond is 1-10 ATS. A “public” team like North Carolina is 10-4 ATS even though oddsmakers are supposed to make the hurdles too high for ESPN’s pets. A high profile team like UCLA is 4-11 ATS even though oddsmakers are supposed to react quickly when something happens to a prominent power.
Let me tell you what’s happening out here in Las Vegas. Sportsbooks are having such a fantastic year separating squares from their money in the NFL that they don’t even care about college basketball yet! It’s been a truly huge football season for sportsbooks. NFL is KING. If you’re making money hand over fist in the king of all gambling sports, nothing else matters.
Well, it’s time for YOU to make it matter. These last several weeks of laziness have left the market way out of touch with many college basketball teams across the nation. You can see that in the extreme ATS records. You can see that in how far many recent final scores are missing the pointspreads. I have no doubts that oddsmakers will get up to speed by around Valentine’s. MARCH MADNESS is the only major betting event between the Super Bowl (first day of February this year) and the return of the NFL regular season in September. Until then, there’s money on the table asking you to pick it up.
Here’s some homework for students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping.
*Go to the standings page at an online site that keeps track of pointspread results (like Covers for example) and list all the ATS records that are better than 67% or worse than 33%.
*Figure out WHY those teams have been playing to those extremes, then make a determination about how long it will take before the line catches up.
*Circle all the games schedule this week that involve those teams.
*Go to websites that monitor offensive and defensive efficiency (like Kenpom for example) to get a true read on who’s doing the best job on a per-possession basis on both sides of the ball.
*Scan down the list to find “past powers” who have fallen off the map this season. It’s amazing how many big name teams forgot how to play basketball over the summer! Michigan has had some high profile losses. Syracuse has lost several steps. UCLA fell into the ocean and can’t find a snorkel. The public is going to start betting basketball this month as football ends…and they’re going to bet on SLUMPING teams because they haven’t been paying attention.
*Shore up your information with my evergreen approach of focusing on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS. Hopefully you did a lot of work here before the season even started. You stragglers, or newcomers, must work diligently to learn who the high impact players are in the teams you’re following (your local conference, your alma mater and its conference, the big TV conferences, whatever). This year, it’s probably worth creating a special category for “perceived playmakers who have turned out not to be very good.” You’ll understand more about that the deeper you go with your homework.
I can’t emphasize this enough if you’re serious about making money as a sports bettor. It’s time to start focusing on basketball! Football isn’t over yet. But, it’s virtually over because only eight more betting games are on the schedule (7 in the NFL and 1 in the colleges), and those are spread out over the next few weeks. Basketball provides multiple winning opportunities every night.
If you’d like some help making nightly picks, you can purchase my weekend BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Call during normal business hours any day this week, or before the games start on Saturday or Sunday if you’re still a football-only bettor.
Our next class get-together will be on Thursday of this week when I’ll discuss strategies for handicapping this weekend’s Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. We have some very interesting matchups on tap that should challenge handicappers. Baltimore and New England have a fascinating recent history. Carolina’s defense may give the Panthers a chance to hang with Seattle. Dallas seems to be destiny’s darling as they travel to Green Bay. How about Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck squaring off in a potential “passing the torch” game for history books?
The Dean of Sports Handicapping knows that you’re here because you’re tired of losing on your own. Maybe you were part of the general public who lost badly this past regular season in the NFL, and you’ve made a New Year’s resolution to get serious about sports betting. You’ve come to the right place. I’ll teach you what I’ve learned from decades at the forefront of the industry. It’s up to YOU to do the rest.
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Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
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