Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, December 15, 2014 at 5:16 PM
NBA’s Warriors Are Bettors’ Meal Ticket Standing 21-2 SU, 16-6-1 ATS
Patriots (11-3), Colts (10-4), Broncos (11-3) Win NFL Divisional Titles But Chase Far From Over
50-Unit College Blowout Team Has 90% Chance To Win Tuesday Night
Redskins Could Improve Dramatically Over Night If They Would Fire Their Inept 1st Year Coach
Yes, Johnny Football Was Awful, But He Will Figure Things Out Sooner Than Later
By Kelso Sturgeon
If you’re handicapping is going bad and you can’t seem to turn it around, don’t sweat it. The gods of betting have sent you a meal ticket by the name of the Golden State Warriors who are 21-2 straight up (91.3% winners) and 16-6-1 against the spread (72.7% winners) 23 games into the season.
It is one thing for Golden State to keep covering the number and quite another to keep covering the number at the 72%-plus rate. The impact of this figure is driven home when one realizes that if you bet the same amount of money on each game you play, you need a more 52.38% winners to break even.
It is obvious those who make betting lines are stuck in the past and have thus far refused to accept the fact the Warriors have moved to the head of the class and are still stuck on the good teams of the recent past.
Just how long bookmakers will continue to under-rate the Warriors, offering them night after night with soft numbers, remains to be seen but until the upgrade arrives, one can make a fortune betting on them. Just pay attention, because when they do wake up, the numbers will become as hard as the proverbial rock.
Other betting realities in the NBA:
- The Philadelphia 76ers are terrible - if that word even comes close to describing the NBA’s worst team - but there is no value in betting against them. The 76ers are 2-21 SU and 11-11-1 ATS, with the latter figure telling us bookmakers have a pretty good line on them.
- The Milwaukee Bucks are another team in disfavor with those who make betting lines, The Bucks are 12-12 SU and 16-80- ATS, which means they cover the number 66.6% of the time.
- The Orlando Magic are another team producing a major profit for bettors, despite the fact they are just 10-16 SU, winning just 38.5% of the time, but are 16-10 ATS, covering the number 61.4% of the time.
Please, Folks, Give Johnny Football A Chance
Hype creates its own nightmares. If you think it does not, just consider the great expectations public hype put on the shoulders of Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel who made his first start this past Sunday. The day was a total disaster for Cleveland who hoped Manziel would be as advertised when they drafted him at #22 in the first round.
Manziel had an outstanding career at Texas A&M but one that was not quite as good as it was hyped. The world was introduced to Manziel late in the 2012 season when he led the Aggies - 13.5-point underdogs - to a 29-24 win at Alabama. In that game Manziel appeared as the second coming of quarterbacks Joe Montana and Peyton Manning, and of running backs Barry Sanders and Walter Payton - all in a single package.
The national TV audience was in awe of that out-of-this-world performance and that was the image with which we were left. It is of note Manziel never performed at that level again. All we really knew of him came from that day in Tuscaloosa against an Alabama team went on to win its second straight national championship.
Cleveland fans have clamored for Manziel all season - they too fixated on that Alabama game - and this past Sunday they got what they wanted. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer was sent to the Bench and Johnny Football took over.
It was ugly. With Manziel in charge, Cleveland lost 30-0, had just five first downs, 107 yards of total offense and was able to hold the ball for just 21:08 minutes of the 60.
Manziel was 4-for-9 for 20 yards passing in the first half, with two interceptions, and sacked him on his first two possessions in the second half. Terrible, terrible and terrible, and then worse.
Yet, it is not time to throw this guy to the wolves. Manziel got a real taste of the NFL and was unprepared in two specific areas. It was obvious he had no concept of the speed of NFL football and certainly lacked the ability to read defenses.
One must grasp the reality of speed. In high school the game is played at 10 miles per hour, in the colleges at 100 miles per hour and in the NFL at 1,000 miles per hour. It takes most quarterbacks about three years to get up to speed and to effectively read defenses.
If I coached the Browns, I would start Manziel again this Sunday at Carolina and give him another chance. He deserves it. Eventually time will reveal I the young man from Texas A&M cab make it but it is far too early to make that determination.
Redskins Can Improve Immediately By Firing Gruden
As a bettor I should be happy Jay Gruden coaches the Washington Redskins. After all I won a 100-unit play this past Sunday going against him, laying the -6.5 with the New York Giants and getting the job done with a 24-13 win. It is no secret I pegged this guy as a loser. My comments on the game, as released on the Internet, were just this:
COMMENTS: There are two things I know for sure about this matchup - (1) New York, no world-beater, will come to play and (2) Washington is being absolutely destroyed by first-year coach Jay Gruden, the former offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. This guy has absolutely no idea how to prepare for an opponent, seems out of touch with what is happening on the field once a game begins and runs his mouth in public in a manner that destroys team morale, especially at the quarterback spot where his ridicule of former starter Robert Griffin is beyond embarrassing. The Redskins have a terrible record in picking head coaches and the choice of Gruden may be the biggest mistake of all. As noted earlier, Giants coach Tom Coughlin will have his team ready to play and it should crush this literally leaderless Washington squad.
It is interesting that after the game, writers for the Washington Post said exactly the same thing, added that this was the worst Washington team in history and that Gruden was so out of touch he never even realized wide-receiver Santana Moss had been kicked out of the game. And then, a second writer Gruden did everything wrong in the closing minutes, giving an appearance he had given up on even trying to win when that possibility still exists.
I have known many coaches who were flaming assholes but who survived because they actually knew what they were doing and were excellent teachers. Gruden appears to be the biggest A-H of them all and he is completely unqualified to be a head coach. Fire him today and the Redskins will be better tomorrow.
You must grab the money when it shows and it certainly shows tonight on a college basketball game that matches one of the most under-rated teams in college basketball against one of the most over-rated and it presents a nice opportunity for my Personal Best Basketball Investment Club highrollers to cash a bit ticket. Get this knockout, blowout 50-unit play, plus the nationally televised (ESPN2) game that finds Alabama (6-2) at nationally-ranked Wichita State (7-1) - and believe me I also have a very strong opinion on the latter game. Get all the money tonight for just $50, charged to your major credit card.
It is early in the NBA season but tonight we have the opportunity to bet on one of the real showdown games of the year when the Golden State Warriors (21-2) go for their 17th straight win against the Memphis Grizzlies (19-4), another real power team. I have dug quite deeply in handicapping this game, am confident I have the winner, and am releasing it as a 25-unit Chairman’s Club play. Get all the money with this one for just $25, charged to your major credit card.