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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, November 23, 2014 at 7:00 PM

If you can figure out which version of the 2014 New Orleans Saints will show up Monday Night to face the Baltimore Ravens, picking the pointspread winner is going to be a cinch! The team that crushed Green Bay and Carolina a few weeks ago could certainly do that on a historically strong home field against Baltimore. But, this inconsistent group has been a big disappointment more often, as we saw last week in a stunning home loss to Cincinnati.

Baltimore’s basically the same team as Cincinnati right now. The Ravens could win outright as a dog just as comfortably if the “wrong” version of the Saints show up.

You’re going to watch. Let’s see if any keys from JIM HURLEY’S key indicators stats will help you WATCH AND WIN!


Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)

Baltimore: 6-4 (#29 schedule in USA Today)

New Orleans: 4-6 (#21 schedule in USA Today)

Disappointing numbers there for both. You probably knew Baltimore has been in the playoff picture all season. But, you weren’t aware they had played one of the easiest schedules in the league! The Ravens would probably be .500 at best against a league average schedule…which means they aren’t really playoff caliber at the moment. New Orleans definitely isn’t, but somebody’s going to win the weak NFC South and they have the best chance. This game may not be as great on paper as you were imagining from the TV commercials.



Baltimore: 5.6 on offense, 5.3 on defense

New Orleans: 6.0 on offense, 5.9 on defense

Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been very explosive under new coordinator Gary Kubiak. An average YPP of 5.6 this deep into the season against a weak schedule isn’t impressive at all. The defense has been impressive, but that’s tempered by the soft slate. New Orleans is barely over break even on a per-play basis despite facing a below average schedule…and despite having an offensive schematic that historically piles up the yardage. After accounting for schedules, this is basically a wash.


Turnover Differential

Baltimore: +1

New Orleans: -9

Baltimore’s been about break-even…but that gives them a huge victory by default in this category! The New Orleans offense has become more turnover prone this year because Drew Brees keeps forcing things out of frustration. The defense is too soft and passive to force many miscues. So, Baltimore will be in position to win the game if they can just avoid making high impact mistakes.


Market Performance

Baltimore: 5-4-1 ATS

New Orleans: 4-6 ATS

The Ravens have managed to make money for backers thus far, which is more a tribute to executing vs. a soft schedule rather than great play. New Orleans is a couple of games below .500, which is in line with the perception that they’re capable of greatness but unable to play at a high level week after week. They covered easily against Green Bay and Carolina in recent prime time TV games. That just tricked people into jumping back on the bandwagon.


Current Line: New Orleans by 3.5, total of 50

The line has hopped between Baltimore +3.5 and New Orleans -3 through the week. That could continue on game day in the hours leading up to kickoff. The public loves betting the Saints at home, particularly when the price seems cheap. Sharps know that the Saints have been moneyburners this year, and haven’t “earned” the hook on top of the three. If you get bullied by Cincinnati, how can you lay more than a field goal to Baltimore?

JIM HURLEY will be working very closely with his full team of experts to make sure clients get the right side (or total) in this one. He is confident it’s going to be an easy cover. Either Baltimore wins straight up to extend the Saints struggles…or New Orleans puts the pieces back together to score another prime time blowout. Don’t take a guess and risk being on the wrong side. Get a BIG, JUICY WINNER!

You can always purchase BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. Mondays are always huge for Las Vegas bettors. But, the night is even more important this week because every dollar you win can be multiplied several times over through the upcoming Thanksgiving Feast. If you have any questions about this year’s TURKEY SHOOT or extended service in football or basketball, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155.

This year’s Thanksgiving NFL schedule is so strong, that we’re going to post some early previews to get you ready for the holiday tripleheader. Here’s what’s on tap from now through Friday…

Tuesday: NFL Early Look…Chicago at Detroit on CBS

Wednesday: NFL Early Look…Philadelphia at Dallas on FOX

Thanksgiving Day: NFL TV Preview…Seattle at San Francisco on NBC

Friday: College TV Preview…Arizona State at Arizona

Saturday: College TV Preview…Auburn at Alabama

Great stuff in the NFL…and then Rivalry Weekend in college football. It’s a great time to sign up with the service that’s been stuffing your cornucopia with cash for almost 30 years. Start your winning Monday Night…then spend another Thanksgiving week with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!


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Jim Hurley on twitter @vsm_hurley

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