Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, November 20, 2014 at 2:00 PM
I can’t recall heading into a November weekend seeing so many big edges on the football board. Sure, the week before Thanksgiving is often a dead spot for disheartened football teams. But, on this particular November weekend of 2014, there are countless towel tossers who are also dealing with bad local weather.
Uncomfortable or poor weather conditions
Poor preparation in the days leading up to their game
I’m always emphasizing the importance of THE MOTIVATION FACTOR to you here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. I’m not going to get specific today…but I strongly encourage each and every one of you reading this to go through this weekend’s college and pro schedules to find teams who are likely to fall victim to the dynamics I just laid out above.
Here’s who you’re looking to fade:
Teams with Losing Records (particularly very bad records)
Teams with a Rivalry game next weekend (Thanksgiving Weekend)
Teams who endured poor weather during their practice week
Teams who will be playing in temperatures in the low 40’s or worse
It should go without saying…but I’ll say it anyway…obviously you should be looking for teams who lack PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS too. My point of emphasis today is on THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. But, clearly teams that lack weaponry are going to be in big trouble in this week’s environment even if they are motivated. Those without motivation will barely show up. Oddsmakers have no idea how to properly price untalented, unmotivated, unprepared teams. When they guess, they’re prone to miss by 2-3 touchdowns on a regular basis.
There is no deader weekend on the college football schedule for bad teams than their next-to-last game…particularly if traditional rivals are scheduled in their season finale next week. That, by itself, has been a license to print money for smart handicappers over the years. Even without bad weather cutting into practice time and focus…it’s not hard to find bad teams who are going to no-show. With this week’s polar vortex disrupting the usual preparation schedules over a wide swath of the country, we are going to see horrible execution from bad, disinterested, unfocused blowout fodder.
In the NFL, it doesn’t have to be a rival on deck that discourages focus from bad teams. Thanksgiving is days away. Poor pro teams often play lethargically on the Sundays that bookend Turkey Day because nothing is more depressing than being on a bad team during the holidays.
You longtime customers know that many of my 100-unit, 200-unit, and 250-unit plays historically have come on win scenarios that are basically 100% straight up and 90% against the spread. I’m talking about mismatches where talented, versatile teams who have a reason to pile up the points are facing bad, demoralized teams who have little reason to show up with a passion. It’s not an exaggeration to say that possibilities for releases of that status are all over the card this week (particularly in, but not exclusively in the colleges).
It’s not fair to my paying clients to highlight the specific games I believe are the best nominees right now for that level of play. But, I’m confident that those of you who embrace the homework assignments here in the coursework will have my choices circled on your initial run-through. What makes KELSO STURGEON an industry legend is my proven ability to winnow down the options to the very best choices. I’ll be doing that over the next several hours. You should be trying to do the same thing. It’s a literal GOLD MINE out there this weekend. Grab a pan.
If you’d like to find out which games made the final cut for me, my game day BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. I hope you’ll ask about combination packages that include basketball. As I discussed earlier this week, early season college hoops is ripe for the picking because oddsmakers just can’t keep up with what’s been happening at every single program.
I’ll be back with you again early next week to talk specifically about the challenges of handicapping Thanksgiving Week football. Then, it won’t be too long before we’re discussing strategies for the conference championship games, the bowls, and then the first ever Final Four playoff that will determine the next National Champion. The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your continuing attendance. I firmly believe that all the hard work you’ve been putting in over the last several weeks is about to pay off for you dramatically. Are you ready to win?!
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