Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 11:00 AM
Five games to get to in our late-week report, highlighted first by the very important NFL showdown Thursday night matching the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. We’ll cover all the Thursday and Friday action for you in this report…then come back Friday for TWO separate reports. The first will deal with a handful of the most important college football games on Saturday. Then, we’ll post our weekly look at the full weekend NFL card a few hours later.
Let’s jump in with Thursday and Friday night football. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
BUFFALO at MIAMI (Thursday-NFL): Miami has been a popular betting team for sharps in recent weeks. The quant guys in particular love their stats. This game is no exception. An opener of Miami -5 has been bet up to -5.5 or -6. Given that the standings have these teams neck-and-neck, that opener of five struck some in the media as being high. Sharps pushed it higher! It looks like underdog money would come in at a widely available +6. So, we may have a tug-of-war in the hours leading up to kickoff between Miami -5.5 and Buffalo +6. Miami money is already in. Buffalo money is out there, but waiting to show. Not much interest in the opening Over/Under of 42. The lack of movement suggests quants made that the number themselves, and that weather isn’t expected to be a factor.
EAST CAROLINA at CINCINNATI (Thursday-College): East Carolina opened at -1, and was immediately bet up to -2.5 or -3 depending on the store. Cincinnati’s been getting settled in recent games after a mid-season injury crisis. But, oddsmakers look to have been giving the Bearcats too much respect in that opening price. East Carolina would have been power-rated for a higher line in most weeks…and sharps stepped in quickly. Signals are mixed about whether or not Cincinnati money will come in at a solid three. This one has a chance to earn public attention because it’s the ESPN2 game that starts about 90 minutes before the NFL kickoff. If squares bet, it’s probably going to be on the cheap favorite that’s spent some time in the national rankings. The Over/Under has been bet up from 66.5 to 68 even with cool temperatures in play. Wind isn’t expected to be a factor.
SOUTHERN MISS at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (Thursday-College): There was a big move in this game toward underdog Southern Miss. But, that was caused by the news that previously injured quarterback Nick Mullens would be returning to the starting lineup. So, that was a “news” move rather than something driven by a flood of sharp action. The line has mostly settled right now at UTSA -7. Some stores are testing -7.5. This isn’t expected to be a highly bet game with those low profile teams involved. An opening total of 47 is down to 46.
CALIFORNIA at USC (Thursday-College): This is the highest profile of the evening’s college slate, with a 9 p.m. ET kickoff set for ESPN (6 a.m. here in Las Vegas and at the Coliseum in Los Angeles). But, it’s not a game that’s garnered much betting interest at all. An opening line of USC -14.5 has nudged up to -15. That’s away from a key number…so we at least know that sharps don’t like Cal. The Wise Guys didn’t seem keen on USC either. If the public pushes the favorite higher before kickoff (possible, but not necessarily likely on an NFL night), then sharp money would likely come in on the dog at +16. Possibly +15.5 if that’s seen as the likely apex. The opening total of 72 has barely drawn interest.
TULSA at CENTRAL FLORIDA (Friday-College): Only one Friday game this week. And, it’s shown a big move on home favorite UFC. Central Florida opened at -18, and was bet up to -20.5 or -21 depending on the store. That’s a big move for an off-the-radar game that isn’t expected to create any TV sizzle. I believe Wise Guy money would start to come in at +21.5 and +22, on the other side of the relatively key number of 21. Nothing happening yet on the total. It might rise if weather is going to be ideal. If a chance of rain develops, that would send the number in the other direction.
My BEST BETS in the NFL, college football, and the NBA the next two days will be available for credit card purchase right here at the website. If you have any questions about my personal service, call the VSM office weekdays during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. Please ask about combination packages for both football and basketball. I’ve been absolutely buried in work the past several days getting prepared for the start of college basketball. My clients and I will really hit the ground running in that sport.
The next “sharps” report here at VSM will go up late Friday morning. I’ll talk about Wise Guy betting in Mississippi State/Alabama, Florida State/Miami, Auburn/Georgia, and two of the prominent Big 10 games. Our regular NFL weekend report will go up a few hours later.
Thanks for reading. See you Friday.
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