Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, November 11, 2014 at 11:00 AM
There’s a chance for weather to be an issue in all four of the Tuesday and Wednesday games this week as a cold snap affects the Midwest and Northeast. Might be some rain in the mix too. So, monitor lines in the hours before kickoff. The general public typically doesn’t bet games like this. So, any significant line moves will be “sharp” moves.
I should point out first that the Wise Guys hit the Unders at offshore openers right off the bat. This was likely because of the weather forecast rather than quants coincidentally getting math grades on all the Unders. Winter football has arrived early in the MAC!
Games are presented in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule.
AKRON at BUFFALO (Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU): The offshore opener was Akron -2.5 or -3 depending on the store. Sharps immediate took that past the critical number to Akron -3.5. Key numbers are slightly less important in the MAC where scoring can be so volatile. It’s still telling that there wasn’t an immediate buyback on the home underdog. The total opened at 51.5 or 51 offshore, and was immediately bet Under pretty hard. Some places are as low as 47.5.
TOLEDO AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2): The first offshore stores opened up at Northern Illinois -4. Early money on the Huskies drove it to -5. Sharps preferring the favorite wanted to get in right away figuring -4 was the best they’d see. Toledo money is waiting to see how high the number might get. The first totals up were in the mid 60’s. Those dropped like the falling temperatures. I’m now seeing 59.5 with a chance the number might drop more.
BALL STATE AT MASSACHUSETTS (Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU): UMASS opened just below a field goal offshore, and was immediately bet up to either -3 or -3.5 depending on the store. Some of that may have been position-taking below the key number. But, UMASS has been developing a following this year among respected money. The Over/Under opened at 63 offshore but has been down to 60 or 59.5.
KENT STATE AT BOWLING GREEN (Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2): Not much early interest offshore on the opening of BG -13. Some stores are testing -13.5 to see if that brings in any action. I wouldn’t expect any Wise Guy money on the dog until +14 is reached (if it gets that high). The opening offshore totals of 55 or 54.5 have been bet down to 52 or 52.5. You can see what I mean about the consistency of Under betting. That’s usually weather related when all games are in the general same temperature/forecast zones on the map.
I want to emphasize again that you should really monitor the numbers between now and kickoff. Perhaps the forecasts will improve and some Over money will hit the board. Dog money has been quiet. There’s no guarantee it’s going to stay quiet. Sharp money has plenty of time to make itself apparent before kickoff, particularly in the Wednesday games. The fact that I haven’t mentioned any tug-of-war situations doesn’t mean they won’t happen in the coming hours.
My BEST BETS in college football and basketball the next two days will be available for credit card purchase right here at the website. If you have any questions about my personal service, call the VSM office weekdays during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. I’m the only former oddsmaker here at Vegas-Sports-Masters. Let the man who was behind the line for so many years help you beat the line.
The next “sharps” report here at VSM will go up Thursday midday to talk about Buffalo/Miami in the NFL and the four college games set for Thursday and Friday. The highest profile of those games is California at USC in the Pac 12). I will definitely have another bonus college report like last week for marquee Saturday matchups. That will go up late Friday morning. I’ll talk about sharp betting in Mississippi State/Alabama, Florida State/Miami, Auburn/Georgia, and a couple of prominent Big 10 games. Our regular NFL weekend report will go up late in the afternoon Friday.
Thanks for reading. Bundle up! Talk to you again later this week.
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