Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 4:00 PM
It’s weekends like this that can cause “square” bettors in Las Vegas to go broke! I want to emphasize to each and every one of you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping that you need to stay disciplined when the media is buzzing about an exciting schedule.
Yes, there are some fantastic games set for TV action this Saturday in college football. And, there will be both Saturdays and Sundays (and a great Thanksgiving this year) where wall-to-wall football will be unleashing its siren’s call luring you in to make bets. You need to remember the fundamentals and only bet when you have an edge.
Here’s a quick look at what you’ll be facing Saturday in terms of media hype and game telecasts…
Noon ET (9 a.m. in Las Vegas): Baylor at Oklahoma
3:30 p.m. ET (12:30 p.m. in Las Vegas): Notre Dame at Arizona State
7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Las Vegas): Kansas State at TCU
8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Las Vegas): Alabama at LSU
8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Las Vegas): Ohio State at Michigan State
10 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Las Vegas): Oregon at Utah
All six of those games feature parings of teams currently in the national rankings from the tournament selection committee. After weeks where we’ve typically had zero, one, or two games of this caliber…suddenly there are SIX on the same day! And, they’re arranged neatly on the schedule so that there are no dead spots. If you live on the East Coast, you could watch great football from noon to well past midnight. If you live here in Las Vegas, where the fun starts earlier in the day…you’ll be watching from 9 a.m. until about the time your late local news comes on.
How many of those games should YOU bet? Sportsbooks are going to be filled with loud fans who bet all of them. It’s going to be the rowdiest Saturdays we’ve seen in years…particularly when fans of Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and Michigan State are going to be trying to yell over each other when big screens are showing those games simultaneously. It’s entirely possible that the right answer is that YOU should bet NONE of them.
There are 41 games on the board. Six represent great television. The other 35 could be offering great money-making opportunities.
I’m not going to tell you here whether or not I’ll be involved in the blockbusters. The laws of math suggest I’ll have something in at least one or two of them. But, my past November betting history makes clear that the most likely nominees for 100-unit, 150-unit, or 200-unit plays will be in quieter places on the schedule.
*Marquee TV games are heavily bet, reducing the chance for line errors
*Off-the-Radar games are lightly bet, increasing the chance for line errors
*Marquee TV games properly price the impact of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS
*Off-the-Radar games often miss the dynamic impact of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in likely blowouts
*Marquee TV games see little or no edge for THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
*Off-the-Radar games often have MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCHES
It’s very simple…both teams are going to be sky high for Baylor/Oklahoma or Ohio State/Michigan State for example. There may be a game in the Mountain West or CUSA where an edge in team intensity is going to be worth 1-2 touchdowns. You want to focus your financial attention where those motivational mismatches are going to create lopsided scoreboards.
Public money might make a favorite slightly too high in a big TV game. But, those lines are going to be fairly solid because of how heavy betting action shapes the number in the market. Advantage players will pick their spots for value bets if free points are in play from the public. KELSO STURGEON may pick some spots for value bets! But, the biggest errors where you take the rubber bands off your bankroll will likely come elsewhere.
Keep your discipline. Treat this like any other week. Don’t watch the studio shows Friday afternoon and Saturday morning if that helps. The media wants there to be a buzz because they want to deliver big audiences to their advertisers. YOU want sportsbooks to be delivering big money to YOU after the final scores are in the books.
Now, I’m not telling you that you shouldn’t watch the games. Frankly, you MUST watch the games (DVR games that are on at the same time so you can devote full attention to each later when time permits). All of the teams you see listed above will be playing in big games down the road…particularly in the bowls. You may learn something today…because those marquee matchups are basically high caliber bowl games as it is…that will help you pick winners in:
*Critical games later in November
*Conference Championship games
*Bowl Games (particularly MAJOR bowl games with that card)
*The Final Four if Alabama or the eventual Big 12 or Big 10 champions qualify
Let the public lose their shirts overbetting the TV schedule. Use the TV schedule to set up big money opportunities down the road based on what you learn as students.
Our next class get-together will be on Monday. I’m hoping you make some nice scores between now and then! If you’d like some help finding the best plays on the board, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about combination packages that include football and basketball.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. Bet responsibly this weekend!
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters