Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 12:00 PM
Not a busy schedule this week for Thursday and Friday action. But, we do have a very important game in the tight AFC North race when the Cleveland Browns visit their state rival the Cincinnati Bengals Thursday Night. The three college games are truly for hardcore bettors, which means action will mostly be “sharps vs. the oddsmakers” because the general public will be waiting for all the marquee college games set for Saturday.
On that note, wanted to let you know up front that I’ll have a special report going up midday Friday on sharp action in select college football showcase games set for Saturday. I’ll be talking about:
Alabama at LSU
Baylor at Oklahoma
Ohio State at Michigan State
Notre Dame at Arizona State
Oregon at Utah
Kansas State at TCU
Those are listed in Nevada rotation order rather than kickoff order by the way. This may be the busiest and most exciting Saturday of the full season here in Las Vegas sportsbooks because of that full-day slate of blockbusters.
Here’s your late week appetizer…
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (Thursday-NFL): Not much betting interest here from sharps. And, the public hadn’t made much of a move as of publication time. We’re seeing a slight tug-of-war between Cincinnati -6 and Cleveland +6.5. You can tell that sharps don’t love the Bengals or they would have hit -6 much harder. It’s the +6.5 that’s getting tested, not +7. Dog money would come in hard if the public pushed the line that high. Doesn’t seem likely. The total has settled on the relatively key number of 45 after opening at 44.5. That Over/Under could fall during the day if the current forecast for a chance of light rain showers sees precipitation become more likely.
CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST (Thursday-College): Disappointing to have horrible Wake Forest in the ESPN game after last week’s Florida State/Louisville showdown was so exciting. Clemson opened at -21 on the road. I’m now seeing -21.5 because the trickle of money that has come in has been on the favorite. The Over/Under has dropped from 44 to 42.5. Wake’s offense is so bad that sharps were betting Under 44, Under 43.5, and Under 43 in a projected blowout! Weather doesn’t look like it will be a factor, so that’s a quant move.
MEMPHIS at TEMPLE (Friday-College): We move to Friday for an East/West doubleheader. Sharps are back in love with Memphis, and saw that Temple was badly outplayed by East Carolina last week in their fortunate upset. An opener of Memphis -6 has been bet up -7.5. There’s been some buy back with the hook, so we have a tug-of-war between different sharp groups at Memphis -7 and Temple +7.5. I’m hearing that the sentiment for Memphis is stronger at the key number than it is for Temple just above it. The Over/Under has dropped from an opener of 53.5 to 52 or 51.5. Some of that Under sentiment might be connected to how poorly some of the Southern AAC teams played in the North last weekend (East Carolina and Central Florida underachieved badly at Temple and UCONN because of mistake-prone efforts). Cool night with a breeze. So, “Temple money” was coming in on the Under initially, and then at +7.5 when it became available. Memphis money is laying the touchdown.
UTAH STATE at WYOMING (Friday-College): Big drop on the total here from 49.5 to 45 because there’s a chance of snow and a forecast for winds around 15 mph. Sharps almost always bet Unders when weather is an issue because…over the course of thousands of games over the years…those issues have been shown to reduce scoring. It doesn’t always happen…but it happens enough to create value for +EV bettors. Sharps were playing Under anything that was at 45.5 or higher. Sportsbooks moved fairly quickly on the weather news. The team side price is hopping between Utah State -6.5 and home dog Wyoming +7. Looks like a tug-of-war there between competing syndicates. This just isn’t the kind of late-week card squares are going to bet!
My BEST BETS from these games and Thursday/Friday NBA can be purchased here at the VSM website with your credit card. Oddsmakers have had serious problems pegging several NBA teams out of the gate. Wise Guys have been taking advantage. Make sure YOU are too!
If you have any questions about my service, call the VSM office weekdays during normal business hours, and weekends before first kickoff at 1-888-777-4155.
See you midday Friday for that special report on Saturday’s marquee matchups. We’re adding more college coverage because of popular demand! Then, we’ll come back a few hours later for our weekly look at how sharps have been betting the rest of the NFL schedule. Thanks for reading. See you Friday.
Be sure to follow:
Richie B. on twitter @vsm_baccellieri
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters