Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, November 4, 2014 at 12:00 PM
Las Vegas bettors love having football on the schedule in the middle of the week. The Mid American Conference will step into the limelight with Tuesday and Wednesday action over the next three weeks (and Tuesday games all month!). I’ll have special reports every Tuesday morning Las Vegas time (lunchtime on the East Coast) through November to talk about sharp action in these prime time TV games.
Here’s what’s happened so far in this week’s quartet…
BOWLING GREEN AT AKRON (Tuesday): If you haven’t been following the MAC this year, these are the two teams at the top of the East Division standings at the moment. Bowling Green is 3-2 in league play, while Akron is 2-2. Everyone else is below .500! Oddsmakers had Akron as the superior team despite those records, and opened the Zips at -5 on their home field. Sharps hit the home team at that price, and at -5.5 and -6. I’m now seeing a solid -6.5 everywhere. It’s widely assumed that Bowling Green money would come in strong at +7. So, syndicates preferring Akron bet early, while those looking at the road dog are waiting to see if they can get the full touchdown.
The Over/Under has been bet up from an opener of 56 to 58.5. It doesn’t take a lot of money to move a MAC total because oddsmakers have a lot of respect for sharp action in this league.
TOLEDO at KENT STATE (Tuesday): This a matchup of the best team in the West (Toledo at 4-0 in the MAC, 5-3 overall) and the last place team in the East (Kent at 0-4 in the MAC, 1-7 overall). Toledo opened at -12 as a road favorite. They’ve been bet up to -13.5 and -14. Position-takers and those preferring the Rockets bet fairly quickly. Sportsbooks were less concerned about big dog action at the key line in this game, so have tested the full 14. If the public bets this game, it’s likely to be on the favorite. Sharp dog lovers may not come in on ugly Kent until at least +14.5.
BUFFALO at OHIO (Wednesday): Both teams have losing records in conference action and for the year. The market saw them as close to even with Ohio opening at -3 on its home field. Action that’s come in so far has been on Ohio, which has many stores testing Buffalo +3.5. We may see a tug-of-war between those prices throughout the day Wednesday. Were the public to show a strong preference, sharps would likely fade the public. Many stores haven’t even posted a total as we publish. Any line move you see off the openers will be sharp moves because the public usually isn’t paying attention to Over/Unders on a game like this!
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE (Wednesday): Northern Illinois is 4-1 in the West, just behind Toledo. Ball State trails them at 2-2 in MAC action, but is only 3-5 for the season. The market has Northern as the superior team…opening at -2.5 for the road favorite. The number was bet immediately to the key number of three. Sharps who liked the favorite wanted to get in under the key number. There was probably some position-taking there as well because the public is likely to bet a team they’ve heard of in recent years like Northern Illinois at cheap prices. Ball State money from Wise Guys is likely to come in above the three, and very likely if the number moves to +4. Another game where the total is slow to go up on the board. Early-bird openers of 60 were bet Over in very strong fashion, suggesting most stores will open in the 63-64 range.
My BEST BETS from these games and midweek NBA can be purchased here at the VSM website with your credit card. Some great NBA matchups are on tap including Cleveland at Portland and Houston at Miami on Tuesday, and LA Clippers at Golden State and Memphis at Phoenix on Wednesday.
If you have any questions about my service, call the VSM office weekdays during normal business hours, and weekends before first kickoff at 1-888-777-4155.
I’m going to add a special report late in the week to cover all the marquee matchups in college football. This may be the single best Saturday of the whole college season! Here’s what’s ahead:
Thursday: how sharps are betting Thursday and Friday football (including Browns/Bengals).
Friday Morning: how sharps are betting Saturday’s marquee matchups (including Alabama/LSU, Baylor/Oklahoma, and Ohio State/Michigan State).
Late Friday Afternoon: how sharps are betting Sunday and Monday NFL.
Thanks for reading. See you again Thursday morning Las Vegas time.
Be sure to follow:
Richie B. on twitter @vsm_baccellieri
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters