Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, October 30, 2014 at 12:00 PM
Five football games to look at this week on the college and pro schedules. There’s a lot of buzz here in Las Vegas about Thursday Night’s Florida State/Louisville game in college football. That’s been one of the most heavily bet weeknight college games we’ve seen in quite some time. I’ll start with the NFL game because we always go in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (Thursday-NFL): A lot of early support from sharps and squares alike for the Saints here. An opener of New Orleans -1.5 has now been bet all the way up to the key number of -3 in most places. New Orleans impressed everyone with their big win over Green Bay on Sunday Night. There's really no way to justify that price based on full season results unless you’re giving a lot of weight to the Saints finally finding their form last week. Please monitor possible moves throughout the day to see if there’s any buyback on the underdog at +3. Complicating matters here is the fact that sharps who play teasers would love to see Carolina at the +2.5 so they can cross the 3 and 7 in one fell swoop on two-teamers. The public definitely liked the Saints at anything below a field goal. The sharps will make their sentiments around the key number more clear in the hours right before kickoff.
The Over/Under as nudged up a half a point from 49 to 49.5. Doesn’t look like weather is going to be a factor, so any big move the rest of the day would most likely be from public money. Sources tell us that sharps who are still skeptical about New Orleans on the road might come in on the Under at 50.
TROY at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Thursday-College): This is a game only sharps would bet…and sharps were very active at the openers. Georgia Southern came on the board at -23. They’ve now been bet up to -26. The Over/Under came up at 66, and has been bet down to 63. That’s a very clear “Georgia Southern and Under” combo that was still in play at -24 and 55, and at -25 and 54. Troy is likely to have big troubles stopping the option attack of GS, which means the favorite controls the flow of the game and the clock. Note that sharp money did stop coming in at the 26 and 63.
FLORIDA STATE at LOUISVILLE (Thursday-College): Great to have such an important college game on a Thursday Night! There were multiple max bets that came on in home underdog Louisville earlier in the week. Florida State opened at -7…but the number has dropped down to either –3.5 of -4 depending on your store. Oddsmakers expect the public to bet Florida State as an affordable powerhouse in a TV game. But, squares backing the Seminoles this season have taken a bath! So, that sentiment isn’t as strong as usual…and is part of the reason sportsbooks dropped their number so quickly when sharps came in strong right away on Louisvile. No interest on the total yet…and weather isn’t going to be any sort of developing factor based on the forecast.
TULSA at MEMPHIS (Friday-College): Moving to Friday now. Sharps have fallen back in love with Memphis after the bounce back game at SMU. The Wise Guys had been doing well with the Tigers until that stunning home loss to Houston. Here, an opener of -21.5 has been bet up to -24. And, there’s even been some testing of -24.5. That’s telling because -24 is a minor key number in blowout scenarios. Money still seems to be coming in on the Tigers at -24. The total has risen from an opener of 60 up to 61 or 61.5.
CINCINNATI at TULANE (Friday-College): Support for the road favorite and the Over here, with Cincinnati opening at -3.5 and 54.5, before rising up to -4.5 and 56.5. You knew right away that sharps didn’t like Tulane because the opener moved away from the key number of three. Sharps preferring the home dog would have taken out the hook right away. We’re hearing there is some home dog money out there waiting to come into play. We would probably see that at +5 unless it looks like the public was going to drive it higher. Less likely in a low profile game like this.
That’s how the five late-week football games have played out so far. My BEST BETS from these matchups can be purchased in the hours leading up to kickoff right here at the VSM website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the VSM office Thursday afternoon at 1-888-777-4155.
I’ll be back with you Friday around lunchtime in the East, brunch time here in Las Vegas for our full look at the NFL weekend ticket. See you then!
Be sure to follow:
Richie B. on twitter @vsm_baccellieri
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters