Vegas Sports Masters Blog
Back to Blog Home…

Submitted by Jim Hurley on Monday, October 27, 2014 at 8:00 PM

The Kansas City Royals had to feel like they were in great shape after winning Game Three in San Francisco. Their Cinderella story was falling into place chapter and verse, with a 2-1 series lead and two home games in their back pocket if needed. They’re going to need them!

After getting spanked by scores of 11-4 and 5-0 (that’s 16-4 over two games in a hitter’s park!), the Royals now have their backs to the wall with Game Six on tap Tuesday Night. Kansas City must win that one to force a Game Seven that will be played Wednesday in front of a jam-packed stadium dressed in Royal Blue.

Let’s run some numbers to see how things may play out the rest of the way…



San Francisco 27 runs

Kansas City: 15 runs

San Francisco had the more impressive offense through the course of the regular season once you adjusted for league and ballpark. Kansas City had one of the worst offenses in the AL, where designated hitters are used instead of making pitchers bat. San Francisco was one of the better NL offenses despite playing home games in a pitcher’s park…and despite their pitchers being part of the batting order. That dynamic has really manifested itself here. The Royals are averaging only three runs a game. San Francisco has been more explosive in terms of power and stringing together hits for big innings. The offensive edge still goes to the Giants.



Jake Peavy vs. Yordano Ventura

This is a rematch of Game Two, which the Royals won 7-2. Perhaps more importantly, it’s a reminder that Madison Bumgarner won’t be starting any more for the Giants! He’s completely owned the Royals, who have been getting production in the other games. Kansas City is favored Tuesday, and will be favored Wednesday if they can stay alive.



Jake Peavy: 3.73 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.0 K-Rate 6.3 IP-per-Start

Yordano Ventura: 3.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.8 K-Rate 6.0 IP-per-Start

The difference in leagues becomes a big advantage for the Royals here. Ventura had the superior ERA and K-Rates while throwing in a much tougher pitching environment. That’s why he’s the clear betting favorite in Las Vegas.



Jake Peavy: 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.7 K-Rate 4.9 IP-per-Start

Yordano Ventura: 4.42 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.9 K-Rate 6.0 IP-per-Start

Though, what’s happened so far in the postseason may be suggesting some nerves for the younger pitcher. Ventura’s K-Rate has plummeted, and he’s certainly been mortal. The good news for Royals fans is that Peavy is putting guys on base, hardly getting any strikeouts, and isn’t even lasting five innings per start! If each throws to his regular season norms, edge to Ventura. If each throws to his postseason norms, the first few innings could be pretty exciting before the bullpens have to lock down a result.


Las Vegas line: Kansas City -140, total of 7

The opener of KC -135 has been bet up, with many in the public betting the “must-win” team playing at home. And, many sharps had made the game -137 to -138 themselves and bet right off the bat.

JIM HURLEY has been working very closely with his full team of experts to find the right way to play Game Six. Has the value been bet out of the Royals already? Will World Series experience help San Francisco seal the deal Tuesday Night? Is it better to look at the Over given the pitching data we just studied and the run scoring tendencies we’ve seen in games not started by Bumgarner?

Don’t make a move until you hear what JIM HURLEY has to say!

You can purchase the final word for Tuesday baseball (and opening night in the NBA!) right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about multi-sport packages that combine football and basketball (and what’s left of the Fall Classic).

Back with you Wednesday for a special NBA preview of the Chicago Bulls/New York Knicks game that will be nationally televised by ESPN. Are you ready for the new season? Can you believe that Pau Gasol is now playing for the Bulls while Phil Jackson is now running the Knicks!

Here’s the schedule for the rest of the week…

Wednesday: NBA Preview…Chicago Bulls at NY Knicks on ESPN

Thursday: NFL Preview…New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers on CBS

Friday: College Football Preview…#4 Auburn at #7 Ole Miss

Sunday: NFL Sunday Night Preview…Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers on NBC

Monday: NFL Monday Night Preview…Indianapolis Colts at NY Giants on ESPN

The 2014 World Series is just hours from coming to an end. When championships are on the line, YOU NEED WORLD CHAMPION HANDICAPPER JIM HURLEY!


Be sure to follow:

Jim Hurley on twitter @vsm_hurley

Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters

Join the discussion


Forgot password

Keep me logged in