Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, October 27, 2014 at 5:00 PM
Congrats to all of you who were with me for another big weekend. My big winner Sunday on the Houston Texans (-) over the Tennessee Titans was presented to us on a silver platter when the Titans decided to start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.
The rookie from LSU had trouble playing consistently vs. good defenses at the college level. What was he going to do as an NFL rookie? He wasn’t as heralded as Blake Bortles (who’s struggling), or Teddy Bridgewater (who’s struggling), or Johnny Manziel (who would so obviously be struggling that he’s not getting much of a chance to play). And, he was asked debut against the aggressive turnover-forcing defense of the Texans! “WATT were they thinking?!
We have a lot of first and second year quarterbacks who are stinking up NFL gridirons right now. I’m sure all of you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping read all the boxscores. Here’s a quick synopsis just in case you were busy with other sports.
*Blake Bortles has been starting for a few weeks for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Maybe he’s going to develop into a star…and maybe he’s not. For now, he has to stop throwing touchdown passes to the wrong team! Jacksonville lost to Miami Sunday 27-13, with two pick-sixes leading the way.
*Teddy Bridgewater could only lead his team to 13 points in regulation at Tampa Bay, in a game the Minnesota Vikings were fortunate to win 19-13 in overtime on a defensive score. You can see that Bridgewater “looks” like he belongs in the pocket. When we he start consistently getting production?
*Mike Glennon was the other quarterback in that Vikings/Bucs game. He’s a second-year player out of NC State. At 6’6”, you can see why scouts like him. But, it’s just not happening yet in terms of reliable production. Tampa Bay managed only 4.0 yards-per-play Sunday and converted just 1 of 12 third down tries. If Glennon were a future star, this wouldn’t be happening any more.
*Austin Davis has shown surprising promise as an emergency starter for the St. Louis Rams. But, he laid a real big egg Sunday at Kansas City. The team managed only 200 total yards on 3.9 yards-per-play. They converted just 3 of 11 third down tries while suffering a 34-7 blowout loss.
*Geno Smith…do I even need to say anything about Geno Smith?! He threw three interceptions Sunday vs. Buffalo, all in the first quarter! He’s just not getting it. And, only a team as badly misrun as the Jets would have given him this many chances.
*Zach Mettenberger couldn’t get much going for the Titans until they were way behind on the scoreboard. Tennessee was just 2 of 12 on third downs, and turned the ball over twice in their 30-16 loss. It was 30-9 in the final moments. How was Houston such a cheap favorite?!
*Derek Carr of Oakland is another youngster who’s only getting an extended look because he was drafted by a poorly run franchise. We saw him struggle out here in the Las Vegas Bowl last year against the USC defense. He wasn’t ready for what the NFL brings to the table in terms of athleticism and blitz packages. Oakland managed just 4.8 yards-per-play, and didn’t score a TD until garbage time when they were down 23-6.
Those were all very clear non-covers…except for Bridgewater’s win where two young overmatched quarterbacks happened to be matched up in the same game. Oddsmakers still have the notion of PARITY stuck so deeply in their heads that they just can’t post the right number when inexperienced quarterbacks are on the field vs. good defenses. These guys can cover vs. soft defenses. These guys can get the money if the opposing favorite is flat as a pancake for one reason or another. But, smart Las Vegas bettors should really step out when any of them (or any new starter that makes his 2014 debut in the coming weeks) has to face a good defense that has THE MOTIVATION FACTOR going for them as well.
Fade overmatched quarterbacks!
I’m sure I’ll be doing that again this coming weekend and through the rest of the season. If you’d like some help finding the best bets on the board each and every day, my BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about combination packages that include football and basketball.
I’ll do my best to put together some early season NBA handicapping notes for you in the very near future. Pro hoops starts Tuesday, and I know many of you like supplementing your football action with weeknight basketball. Thanks again for all of your hard work. See you again soon.
Be sure to follow:
Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon
Vegas-Sports-Masters on twitter @vsmasters