Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Tuesday, October 21, 2014 at 1:00 PM
Avid football bettors were ecstatic when lesser known conferences started putting games on Tuesday Night to get some TV exposure. Sharps recognized a great opportunity to beat a soft number that was rushed into the market by oddsmakers. For that reason, we’ll pick some spots this season here at Vegas-Sports-Masters to cover sharp betting on Tuesday action.
Of course, Tuesday’s a great day to file a report this week because the World Series begins tonight in Kansas City! Let’s see how sharps have been betting Tuesday Night college football and the Fall Classic…
ARKANSAS STATE at LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (Tuesday-ESPN2): An opener of Arkansas State -1.5 has been bet up to -2 and -2.5 by sharps. Sportsbooks are hesitant to bring the key number of three into play because that would likely trigger underdog money on the most common final scoring margin. Were the game to end on three after a price move…then all the Arkansas State money would win, while the Louisiana-Lafayette money would push. And the full three could bring in so much home dog money that the books became overly unbalanced the other direction. Tough spot for sportsbooks…who have been dealing with the issues around 2.5 and 3 a lot in recent days.
Some sharps clearly like the road favorite at -1.5 and -2. Sources tell us a few syndicates would at least step in for value on the home underdog at +3 if it becomes available. The Over/Under hasn’t been up long. An opener of 54 has nudged upward to 54.5 or 55 depending on the store. Not a heavy interest game for the Wise Guys. Any moves caused by public action would be faded. But, this isn’t likely to be a game that brings a meaningful number of squares into action.
WORLD SERIES BETTING: SAN FRANCISCO VS. KANSAS CITY
Sharps made the series pick-em. So, an opening price of Kansas City -115 to win it all was bet back fairly quickly. It’s not right to say that “sharps liked the Giants” to win. But, rather, the “right” line was pick-em, and sharps bet for value whenever they can. In a 2014 baseball postseason that’s seen underdogs win every series, there is no official underdog entering the World Series.
WORLD SERIES GAME ONE (Tuesday-FOX-TV): This is Madison Bumgarner of the Giants vs. James Shields of the Royals. The closest thing this series has to a media-darling pitcher is Bumgarner, so he’s getting some respect in the price. The game is pick-em…give or take a few cents depending on the store even though we open in Kansas City. The perceived edges of Bumgarner over Shields make up for home field impact. Some sharps have taken value positions on Bumgarner, but not enough to move the line more than a few pennies. Wise Guys would fade any public action in either direction because they see this as such an evenly matched event.
The opening total of 6.5 (Over -120) hasn’t budged in this projected pitcher’s duel. Note that all three of postseason Shields’ starts have been high scoring because he hasn’t been able to maintain his regular season form. His games have landed on 17, 11, and 14. Bumgarner’s have landed on 8, 5, 3, and 9. The market is assuming Shields pitches to his regular season norms with this evening’s pricing. Any move to a full seven would bring in a lot of old-school Wise Guys who like betting Unders in the playoffs when staff aces are on the mound.
That’s a look at Tuesday. The next “sharps” report will be on Thursday when we cover San Diego/Denver in the NFL plus SIX college football games set for Thursday and Friday evening. Then, on Friday afternoon, it’s our regularly scheduled look at the full weekend of pro football.
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Thanks for reading! See you again around midday Eastern time on Thursday, mid-morning here in Las Vegas.
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