Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, October 20, 2014 at 3:00 PM
I’ll be back in a few days to talk football again. But, I wanted to put together a special report on handicapping the World Series for everyone who studied hard here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping throughout the summer.
I have to admit that we’ve seen a stunning chain of developments through the baseball postseason. Even if you liked Kansas City as a potential darkhorse in the American League, you didn’t expect them to storm through the brackets in such dramatic fashion! And, if you liked San Francisco in the NL, you probably tried to talk yourself out of it because their luck should have run out with two World Championships in the last four years.
You just never know in baseball. But, the fact is, you just never know in all sports handicapping too. It’s a matter of percentages. Even when I tell you I believe a football team will cover 90% of the time…there’s that 10% that can jump up and bite you when key PLAYMAKERS get injured early in the game. I fully believe smart handicappers can put the percentages in their favor in the World Series, then let the chips fall where they may.
Here are some keys that are particular to handicapping a World Series.
*Know the strengths and weaknesses of the bullpen rotations. You saw this a lot in the playoffs. Most games were decided in the latter innings when offenses either did or didn’t score off the relievers they were facing. Study the boxscores from earlier rounds and the pennant stretch to learn each manager’s preferences for who might pitch in the fifth inning if needed, the sixth, the seventh, and so on. Know who the “one-out” guys are who will come in with a platoon advantage. Focus on strikeout rates and home run rates for Royals pitchers, because the Giants will try for the longball late in close games. Learn what you can about the ability of SF relievers to hold runners on or get pickoffs…because Kansas City will try to steal bases every chance they get.
If you’ve been following baseball closely this year, you know all about the projected starting pitchers…and the offenses. It’s time for a refresher course on the bullpens. Really STUDY the late innings in the LCS so you know how these teams won, and how either might be defeated.
*Because Kansas City has had so much success with “small ball,” it might be helpful for you to spend more time looking at how the Giants have performed against the running game this season. Normally, this is such a small issue in the World Series that it barely deserves your attention. In this matchup, it could actually mean everything. Kansas City now sees itself as the bastions of old-school baseball. They want to win that way. If San Francisco can’t stop them, KC will win that way! But, if the Giants neutralize the approach, do the Royals have any other options? Kansas City’s not going to beat you with power, and they don’t have any Clayton Kershaws in their rotation (a lot of good that did the Dodgers anyway!).
*Remember to focus on game conditions. Late October weather in San Francisco and Kansas City could throw some real curves into proceedings. The Giants are much more used to playing in chilly weather, which may be part of why they’ve had such great October success in recent seasons. Know the forecasts for game time temperatures and wind speed/direction.
I’m not going to talk specifics because I need to protect that information for my clients. I plan to have a selection in every game on either a side or a total. Though it’s possible that the market nails the prices so exactly that a pass is called for. Given the current starting pitcher projections and extended weather forecasts, I expect to be in action almost daily. There are edges out there waiting to be found for those of you willing to do the work!
If you’d like some additional help finding the best bets on the board each and every day through the World Series and the very busy football schedule…BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Congratulations to all of you who won this past Saturday with my 100-unit blowouts on Michigan State over Indiana and Marshall over Florida International. I’m still angry that injuries to my #1 and #2 running backs in Buffalo took away our chance to cash on the Bills…as the defense bullied Teddy Bridgewater in the manner I expected. It takes something crazy like that to derail a top play from KELSO STURGEON!
See you again in a few days to talk more about football. The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work.
And be sure to follow Kelso Sturgeon on twitter @vsm_sturgeon!