Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, October 9, 2014 at 8:40 AM
Baltimore Orioles Now 2-1 Favorites To Win World Series - St. Louis Cardinals 2nd Choice At 5-2
Best-Of-7 League Championship Rounds Begin Friday Night With Royals At Orioles 8-2 In Playoffs Thus Far And Big Money Still To Be Made
By Kelso Sturgeon
Sometimes it’s easy - you just look at the numbers. For instance the National Football League’s Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-5 straight up and 0-5 against the spread and ranked next to last in the American Football Conference in offense, averaging 272.2 yards per game, and last of the 16 teams in defense, surrendering 435.4 yards per game.
Those numbers emphatically drive home the point it is impossible to win in the NFL when you average 13.4 points per game while giving up 33.8. The cover becomes almost as difficult as the straight up win when a team loses each contest by an average of 20.4 points per game.
In handicapping most games, nothing is easy and one must go far beyond the betting line to win. The number is quite accurate and must be respected. It is the enemy and those who suggest it is not right on the money set themselves up to lose theirs. This is not to suggest linemakers do not make mistakes but they are few and far between.
Bettors will find far more of the latter than the former as they handicap this weekend, especially in the colleges, where for the first time this season winning the important games will require moving beyond the numbers to find winning edges. The NFL is what it is - the toughest game in the world to beat - and requires that off-the-beaten-path-hidden-from-most-everybody research every weekend.
It’s Time For 24 Contenders To Fish Or Cut Bait
Six weeks into the college season there are no less than 24 teams very much alive and with chances to play for the championship. Nine are undefeated - for now - and the other 15 gave have one loss. For the record, my analysis says defending champion Florida State (5-0) and Auburn (5-0), the team the Seminoles defeated 34-31 to win the 2013 title, are the two best teams in the country.
At this point that means very little, since those selecting the teams to be the Football Final Four focus primarily on won-lost records and little else. This even leaves the door open to Marshall (5-0) that, because of a very weak schedule, is 1-9 to finish undefeated. Ahead for the Thundering Herd, a very powerful and talented team, are Middle Tennessee (4-2), Florida International (3-3), Florida Atlantic (2-4), Southern Miss (2-4), Rice (2-3), UAB (3-2) and Western Kentucky (2-3).
Meantime, 5-0 Auburn is a 3-point favorite at 5-0 Mississippi State Saturday in a classic Southeastern Conference battle between two overpowering, quick and physical to the 100th power teams - each loaded with blue-chip players.
After this showdown battle of unbeaten teams, Auburn faces South Carolina (3-3), Mississippi (5-0), Texas A&M (5-1), Georgia (4-1), I-AA Samford (3-2) and Alabama (4-1). For Mississippi State it will be Kentucky (4-1), Arkansas (3-2), I-AA Tennessee-Martin (1-5), Alabama (4-1), Vanderbilt (1-5) and Mississippi (5-0).
It’s time the true contenders must stand up and fire their best shots. Winning is all that counts.
Both Auburn and Mississippi State are made of iron but it will be difficult for either to go undefeated and that alone compromises their chances to make the championship game.
Florida State (5-0) has a bit less daunting schedule as it faces Syracuse (2-3), Notre Dame (5-0), Louisville (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Miami (3-3), Boston College (3-2) and Florida (3-1) but it is no sure thing to march through that group undefeated. After all, everybody fires their best shot at #1.
We could include several more undefeated teams - such as Baylor, TCU, Georgia Tech, Mississippi and Notre Dame - and they too have much to do to finish the season without a loss. That leaves us with Marshall, whatever that means.
To Beat The Number Bettors Must Journey Into Subjective Factors That Cannot Be Quantified
When I refer to digging deep to find a factor or two that gives you at least a slight edge to beat the number and in world ruled by points and half-points that is ever so important. Here are some examples of what I consider hidden elements.
- The Oregon Ducks (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) are still in the running for the championship but are severely compromised by an offensive line that is having a difficult time opening holes for its lightning-fast blue-chip backs and protecting senior quarterback Marcus Mariota who may well be the best signal callers in the land.
- Arizona (5-0 SU. 2-3 ATS) upset Oregon last week, 31-24, as a 21.5-point underdog to remain undefeated and is the most incentive-driven team in the PAC-12 because it is the only conference member to have never played in the Rose Bowl.
- This is no knock on Alabama (4-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) but the Crimson Tide, still a contender despite its 20-17 loss at Ole Miss last week, don’t appear to be the well-oiled team on both sides of the ball as those of the recent past. The Tide is by no means a rag-tag squad even though it sometimes plays in that mode.
Hopefully this offers a bit of insight into these teams and will serve as a guide as to where to look for the hidden edges.
I am certainly not ready to crown myself the King of Thursday Night College Football but the facts are certainly pointing in that direction after scoring two amazing 50-unit wins the past two Thursday nights - and, believe me, “amazing” is a classic understatement.
Last Thursday night I released underdog Arizona (+23.5) at second-ranked Oregon as a 50-unit play and won that one straight up, 31-24, in one of the biggest upsets of the season. Two Thursdays ago, I took a big-time 50-unit stand on UCLA, a modest -4, at Arizona State and watched as the Bruins won, 62-27, in one of the biggest blowouts of the season.
I am going for the encore tonight with a 50-unit move on the nationally televised (ESPN) BYU (4-1) at Central Florida (2-2). Two weeks ago I would have picked BYU to crush a rebuilding Central Florida team but that changed last week when the Cougars lost superstar quarterback Taysom Hill who suffered a broken leg early in its game against Utah State. Without Hill, BYU looked almost helpless and lost to the Aggies 35-20 as a 21-point favorite. That loss dramatically changed things - or did it? I figured this one out and am releasing a 50-unit play on this game and I am extremely confident I will again get the cash.
It’s NFL Score Time Again Tonight With 25-Unit Play On Colts At Texans
My Chairman’s Club won last Thursday’s NFL game with a winning 25-unit play on the Green Bay Packers (-9.5) with their 42-10 blowout win over the Minnesota Vikings, continued the NFL winning on Sunday with a 50-unit NFL Game of the Week play on the San Diego Chargers (-7) with their blowout 31-0 blowout victory over the New York Jets - and the winning continues tonight. The Indianapolis Colts (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) are a field goal favorite at the Houston Texans (3-2, 4-1) and while I do not think this game will be a blowout I do have a strong feeling as to which team gets the money. Win this Chairman’s Club play for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
Red-Hot 8-2 In MLB Playoffs And Set To Keep Right On Winning
As Royals At Orioles Launches AL Pennant Round Friday
Las Vegas bookmakers have made the Baltimore Orioles the 2-1 choice to win the World Series, while St. Louis is the second choice at 5-2 and the Royals and San Francisco Giants check in at 3-1, The American League begins its best-of-seven (2-3-2 format) pennant around Friday night with the Orioles hosting the Royals.
On the mound for the Royals will be right-hander James Shields (1-0 with an ERA of 3.00 in the post season and 14-8 with an ERA of 3.21 in the regular season. The Orioles counter with right-hander Chris Tillman (1-0 with an ERA of 3.60 in the post season and 13-6 with an ERA of 3.34 during the regular season. The game begins at 8:05 EDT and will be televised nationally on TBS.
I am off to an 8-2 start in the Major League Baseball playoffs - and that record includes five winning underdogs, including wins at +190 and +182 - and I intend to keep right on rolling Friday night and will be releasing Baltimore-KC matchup as a 15-unit play. Get on this red-hot bandwagon and get it done again tonight for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
8-2 To Start Playoffs
10/7...Nationals (-130) 2, Giants 3 (Lose)
10/6...20 Units...Nationals (+120) 4, Giants 1 (Win)
10/5...15 Units...Royals (-130) 8, Angels 3 (Win)
10/4...15 Units...Dodgers (-165) 3, Cardinals 2 (Win)
10/3...15 Units...Orioles (-120) 7, Tigers 6 (Win)
10/3...5 Units...Cardinals (+190) 10, Dodgers 9 (Win)
10/2...15 Units...Orioles (+110) 14, Tigers 6 (Win)
10/2...5 Units...Royals (+182) 3, Angels 2 (Win)
10/1...10 Units...Pirates (+105) 0, Giants 8 (Lose)
9/30...15 Units...Royals (+100) 9, Athletics 8 (Win)
By the way, there is plenty of baseball left to play between now and the WORLD SERIES and you can still win plenty of money. Get on board and get the cash.