Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, October 2, 2014 at 8:00 PM
Last Saturday I had a major release on the Texas Longhorns (-) over the Kansas Jayhawks. Even though much of this selection was based on the fact that Kansas had ZERO playmakers or gamebreakers and was facing a truly stout Texas defense…the single biggest reason was probably the fact that Charlie Weis is a horrible college coach.
Well, I should say WAS a horrible college coach because he was fired right after the game! The Kansas administration had seen enough. A guy that was supposedly an offensive guru couldn’t get anything on the board in their biggest home game of the year. The crowd showed up for the TV cameras. Weis showed that he’s been a coaching illusion ever since his later years at Notre Dame. Maybe the Kansas administration was the only collection of people left in the sport who thought Weis could coach!
The nature of college football is that…at any one time…probably about a third of head coaches (arguably many more) are in over their heads…and a fifth are in so far over their heads that they won’t get any more chances at this level. Between tactics, leadership, recruiting, glad-handing alumni, there just aren’t that many men who can thrive. Most tread water. You need to bet against those who are sinking or have already sunk!
I’m not going to get very specific here because I will certainly be fading head coaches for big money in the coming weeks. I will say that I was surprised Brady Hoke wasn’t fired after his mishandling of an injured quarterback last weekend. Given all the mainstream media coverage about the dangers of head injuries, Hoke’s poor coaching and even poorer explanation would have cost him his job if he didn’t have such an expensive buyout. Maybe I’ll be fading Michigan this week at Rutgers. Maybe not. I can mention Hoke because he was already on YOUR mind.
Men who I won’t mention:
*At least five head coaches in major conferences who I’m certain will be fired by the end of this season at the very latest. They’ve been at their current jobs long enough to have proven they’re actually hurting the program just be being there. I’ve already circled spots on the October or November schedules where I plan to fade these teams in horrible personnel matchups.
*At least seven head coaches in the mid-majors who are in the same boat. You longtime clients know that I often have 200-unit and 250-unit releases in the second half of the season when clear blowout situations present themselves in the mid-majors. The line doesn’t really matter in games like this because the favored team can literally name the score. I can assure you these spots are already circled as well and will be played aggressively unless there are injuries to key playmakers and gamebreakers on the favorites between now and then.
I strongly advise serious students of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping to think about which coaches may be on my list. Maybe you can find some additional ones that I should be more aggressive against. Look at won/lost records, scoring differentials, yardage differentials, and…most importantly…duration at the university for the head coach. When the head coach is a sustained failure, players often throw in the towel around midseason. We’ll be reaching that point very soon. There’s enough time in the week between games for you to scout out remaining schedules for the coaches and teams you’ve isolated to find the best go-against opportunities.
I hope you’ve been winning with me lately on my big plays. I invite all of you reading this to join me again this weekend. Game day BEST BETS in both football and baseball can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages or combination packages featuring both football and the baseball playoffs can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
I’ll see you again early next week for further sports betting discussion. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is very appreciative of your attendance and hard work. It’s a shame we won’t have Charlie Weis to kick around any more. Luckily, there are plenty more coaching disasters who we can fade!