Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, September 28, 2014 at 4:00 PM
Monday Night’s NFL matchup could be a tricky one for handicappers. It’s easy to fall in love with either side if you only half think through the process. You don’t make money in Las Vegas sports betting with a half effort! Are you in one of these two camps?
*New England is the OBVIOUS side because Tom Brady (-3) over Alex Smith is a mismatch. You have a star quarterback (who’s admittedly off to a slow start) facing a pretender who’s prone to make bad mistakes in a high pressure game. Brady can win it easily “clean.” Even if Brady isn’t up to past standards, Smith will find a way to lose it. Oh, should we mention Bill Belichick vs. Andy Reid? Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are only -3 over Alex Smith and Andy Reid!
*Kansas City is the OBVIOUS side because they’re in a must-win spot with a 1-2 record (in a tough division) while New England has played badly on the road this year and last. New England’s win at Minnesota was a mirage created by cheap points off turnovers in a game where the Vikings were shellshocked because of the Adrian Peterson drama. They looked awful at Miami (where Kansas City won easily last week), and struggled consistently away from home last season. Heck…right now…Kansas City may be the better team…ask Miami! The Chiefs should be laying three instead of getting three.
A Patriots squad that struggled with Oakland certainly isn’t a sure thing against the Chiefs. But, A Chiefs team that got squashed on this field by Tennessee is far from automatic themselves! Let’s see what Jim Hurley’s key indicator stats have to say about how things might play out.
Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)
New England: 2-1 (lost at Miami, won at Minnesota, won vs. Oakland)
Kansas City: 1-2 (lost to Tennessee, lost at Denver, won at Miami)
New England has the better record while playing an extra road game, but Kansas City has played the tougher schedule. Cross Miami off of both lists, and you get the Pats playing the shorthanded Vikings and hapless Raiders, while Kansas City’s schedule strength is boosted by a road game in Denver. Flip schedules and you might flip records.
New England: 4.3 on offense, 4.4 on defense
Kansas City: 4.8 on offense, 5.6 on defense
Both offenses have struggled, with New England being unbelievably bad by the peak standards of this coach/quarterback regime. But, the only really big negative there is on the defensive side for Kansas City. Can you trust a home dog whose defense is that far off the pace when everything else could cancel out?
New England: +6
Kansas City: -5
Hold the phone! These teams have only played three games! New England is on pace to reach +32 for the season, while Kansas City is racing quickly in the wrong direction. If you believe turnovers are random…then you’ll interpret this as something that’s about to swing Kansas City’s way. But, if you believe that, you haven’t been following New England’s turnover differential closely over the years!
New England: 1-2 ATS
Kansas City: 2-1 ATS
The Patriots have been overpriced outside of the Adrian Peterson game. Kansas City bounced back well after the Tennessee loss. Generally speaking, New England looks like it’s going to be an overrated team this season. The offense is struggling, and the public loves betting them. Can they score enough to cover on a regular basis? That’s tough at home when the line is -10. Less so at -3 vs. a soft opposing defense.
Current Line: New England by 3, total of 46.5
JIM HURLEY knows that Monday is the most important betting night of the week in Las Vegas. If you had a bad weekend on your own, you need a bailout. If you’ve been winning…now’s the time to press up and really go for the home run. You can purchase the final word for Patriots/Chiefs any time during the day Monday right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about seasonal packages, or combination packages for football and baseball, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155. If you’ve been laying off the bases this summer, jump in now for the playoffs!
Back with you Tuesday and Wednesday for baseball playoff coverage. Football previews in the big TV games resume Thursday on our usual schedule. Great to see the college slate picking up after two boring TV weekends! Make sure you’re with us every day through a fantastic thrill-filled October here in the NOTEBOOK. And, GET ALL THE MONEY from sportsbooks with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!