Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, September 24, 2014 at 7:00 AM
The 2014 pro football season has largely been devoid of true shockers. The market is so well-informed these days that “surprises” are a matter of degree. Very few developments come from out of the blue without early hints that either trouble was brewing or a surge was imminent.
Given that…there have been a few surprises expressed by either 3-0 ATS or 0-3 ATS records vs. market expectations. Let’s take a look at those so handicappers can monitor market adjustment in the next few weeks.
CINCINNATI (3-0 ATS)
Many pundits were expecting the Bengals to fall from grace after being exposed in their home playoff loss against San Diego last January. Instead, Cincinnati is off to a GREAT start that includes a road win at Baltimore, and dominant home victories over Atlanta and Tennessee. Note that Baltimore won its other two games, and Atlanta and Tennessee have victories over New Orleans and Kansas City respectively. The market was not pricing Cincinnati like a Super Bowl threat. They’ve been playing that well, though.
SAN DIEGO (3-0 ATS)
Predictions were mixed on San Diego. They did close last season very well. But, handicappers who respect defense didn’t see a lot to like about this Chargers unit. So far, so good! San Diego knocked off the defending World Champion Seattle Seahawks in impressive fashion, and then won at Buffalo in a bad-body-clock game that was a clear letdown spot. Their straight up loss at Arizona was far from embarrassing given how good the Cards are this season. Great start from the Chargers.
Guess what? That’s it! Those are the only two teams that are 3-0 ATS out of 32 franchises in the NFL! We told you the market has most teams pegged very well. Let’s look at a few slow starters.
DENVER (0-3 ATS)
The Broncos would be 1-2 ATS if bets were determined at the end of regulation. And, they also failed to cover just barely as a big favorite in garbage time against Indianapolis. So, it hasn’t exactly been a disaster thus far in terms of playing to expectations. But, there does seem to be some air in the line because the public loves betting on Peyton Manning just a big too much.
GREEN BAY (0-3 ATS)
Green Bay looked surprisingly overmatched last week in Detroit. They were unsurprisingly overmatched in their season opener at Seattle (almost everyone is overmatched on that field!). Their 7-point win over the NY Jets was a push in some circles. We’re calling it a loss because the Packers were favored by more than a TD most of the week and didn’t play well enough to cover. Another team that the public likes just a bit too much right now. There are some insider reports that the league has largely figured out Green Bay’s offense.
JACKSONVILLE (0-3 ATS)
The Jaguars were becoming a hot team in sharp circles because a new attitude was supposedly going to make them a value team at underdog prices this year. That worked for a half in the season opener at Philadelphia. Since then, the Jags have been obliterated! They’re down 119-27 on the scoreboard in their last five halves. You can’t call it a surprise that Jacksonville is once again one of the worst teams in the league. The market has been surprised that the team has seemingly gotten worse since last year!
TAMPA BAY (0-3 ATS)
Arguably the single biggest surprise because Tampa Bay had no logical reason to be overpriced (like Denver and Green Bay would be with their Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks), but they were still getting talked up as a potential Wildcard darkhorse before the season started. Sharps gave too much credit to head coach Lovie Smith and new quarterback Josh McCown. Tampa Bay was a home favorite in losses to backup quarterbacks for Carolina and St. Louis, then got torched 56-14 last Thursday in one of the most embarrassing losses any NFL team had suffered in years.
The market has been reacting quickly in recent years to in-season developments. Be sure you monitor today’s listed teams closely from this point forward to see how well oddsmakers adjust their Power Ratings. It’s certainly possible that either Cincinnati or San Diego maintain high levels of play against skeptical pundits. If Green Bay is falling apart, the public will be hard to convince for probably another month.
Play resumes in the NFL Thursday when the NY Giants (1-2 ATS) visit the Washington Redskins (2-1 ATS) on CBS. We’ll preview that game for you right here in the NOTEBOOK, setting up another big play from JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK! You can always purchase game day BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about seasonal packages, or combination packages for football and baseball, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155.
Football coverage continues this week with:
Thursday: NFL Thursday Night TV Preview…NY Giants at Washington
Friday: College Football Preview (either Arkansas/A&M or Mizzou/SC)
Saturday: College Football TV Preview…Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Sunday: NFL Sunday Night TV Preview…New Orleans at Dallas
Monday: NFL Monday Night TV Preview…New England at Kansas City
Whatever the sport, you know you’ll always STAY AHEAD OF THE MARKET with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!