Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, September 21, 2014 at 4:00 PM
Monday Night’s interesting matchup between the Chicago Bears and the NY Jets presents a meeting of two teams who you couldn’t possibly trust in this situation. The Bears are coming off a road upset at San Francisco in a prime time TV game…and now have to perform on the other side if the country as a TV road dog AGAIN. The Jets are notoriously bad as home favorites because Rex Ryan’s offenses can never be counted on to score on command.
Who are you going to take?! You want Jay Cutler on the road against a good defense? He was lucky to win last week thanks to the Niners giving the game away. You want Geno Smith as a favorite? He could only beat lowly Oakland by 5 points despite enjoying a huge yardage advantage.
Let’s see what JIM HURLEY’S key indicator stats might be hinting at in the game everybody wants to bet…but may have trouble pulling the trigger on…
Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)
Chicago: 1-1 (was upset at home by Buffalo, but shocked SF on the road)
NY Jets: 1-1 (dominated Oakland at home, lost on the road at Green Bay)
You see the inconsistency immediately with those 1-1 records. Both of these teams can play with anybody if the stars are aligned, but are also capable of self-destructing in the worst possible way. Note that the Bears have played the tougher schedule. Buffalo is better than Oakland by a few points, which is also true when comparing San Francisco to Green Bay. Keep that in mind as you study the remaining stats.
Chicago: 5.3 on offense, 6.0 on defense
NY Jets: 5.2 on offense, 4.7 on defense
Big edge here to the Jets, but much of that is due to schedule strength. New York had a 6.2 to 3.2 edge over horrible Oakland! Assume the differentials would be fairly even vs. the same schedule. But, be aware that the Jets do have the much better of the two defenses. Chicago’s defense was horrible last year, and has continued to disappoint. And, we can therefore deduce that Chicago has the much better offense if you neutralize conditions.
NY Jets: -2
Chicago is +2 because San Francisco kept giving them the ball last week! By game, the Bears were -2 in their stunning home loss to Buffalo, but +4 in the miracle win at SF (we say miracle because Chicago was outgained 361-216). The Jets failed to cover vs. Oakland because of an 0-2 loss in this category. They were even with the Packers. Though the Bears currently have the better differential, we are not confident in suggesting they will win this category. Jay Cutler can be a turnover machine when pressured by good defenses.
Chicago: 1-1 ATS with dogs winning both of their games outright
NY Jets: 1-1 ATS thanks to the hook at Green Bay
Again, inconsistency. The Bears missed their spreads by 10 and 15 points in different directions. The Jets have been closer to the market number because their games have had less turnover volatility.
Current Line: NY Jets by 3, total of 45
Basically, oddsmakers are saying “take your shots and we’ll move the line off the three only if we have to.” Normally, of course, sportsbooks would love balanced action in a big TV game like this. Have they created a line that discourages everyone from betting? Can you lay a field goal with Geno Smith and an AFC East also-ran against a potential playoff contender in the NFC? Can you ask the Bears to get good results two weeks in a row on the road on opposite sides of the country.
DON’T MAKE A MOVE UNTIL YOU HEAR WHAT JIM HURLEY HAS TO SAY!
NETWORK’S full team of handicapping experts has been covering this game from every angle. Our New York sources are on top of developments on site. Our guys behind the line offshore and in Las Vegas are alerting us to smart money bulletins. That means customers will get the right side (or total) in a game that will have your buddies scratching their heads all night!
You can purchase the final word for Monday right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about seasonal packages, or combination packages for football and baseball, call us in the office before the earliest kickoffs at 1-888-777-4155.
Enjoy the big TV game. We’re back with you here in the NOTEBOOK with notes columns the next two days. TV previews resume on Thursday with Giants/Redskins in the NFL. A quick look at what’s ahead…
Tuesday: College Football Notes
Wednesday: NFL Notes
Thursday: NFL Thursday Night TV Preview…NY Giants at Washington
Friday: College Football Preview to be determined
Saturday: College Football TV Preview…Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Monday Night has ALWAYS been the most important night of the week for serious sports bettors. Make sure you GET ALL THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!