Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, September 18, 2014 at 4:00 PM
The biggest story in Las Vegas sports betting right now is the fact that local sportsbooks have made an absolute killing through the first two weeks of the NFL season. The public is losing at an astonishing rate. And, even many professional sharps are having some trouble because their Preseason assessments have been off the mark with a few teams.
It’s very important that those of you studying here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping avoid the costly mistakes made by the public, and learn the skills used by professionals to soften the blow of their own errors.
Here are the biggest mistakes made thus far by the public in my view:
*Betting way too many favorites
*Betting way too many Overs
*Betting way too many games
*Betting parlays in hopes of striking it rich
*Betting early season teasers when point value doesn’t justify it
*Trusting New Orleans on the road (0-2 ATS so far)
*Assuming Cleveland would be horrible (2-0 ATS so far)
*Assuming Buffalo would be horrible (2-0 ATS so far)
*Giving Denver too much credit for home field (0-2 ATS so far at home)
*Listening to the media about Carolina’s alleged demise (2-0 ATS so far)
*Believing that backup quarterbacks are incapable of covering pointspreads
Frankly, any of those bullet points could yield a handicapping article all by itself. But, I wanted to lay all of those out on the table so you can think through the process in the coming days. Are you guilty of any of those? Are you guilty of several of those?
What’s really been bad for squares is that many of those elements lined up in a way to create a perfect storm. Sunday Night TV favorites are 0-2 ATS. Monday Night TV favorites are 1-2 ATS. Late Sunday afternoon “bailout” choices were Tampa Bay over shorthanded Carolina in Week One (loss), and Denver to blowout Kansas City in Week Two (failed to cover). Bad picks…led to chasing…with more bad picks…for squares who were already betting too much!
I don’t mean to imply that I haven’t made mistakes myself. It’s impossible to be anywhere near “perfect” in a sports handicapping endeavor. You have to be right more often than you’re wrong, while learning from your mistakes so you can be right more often in the future. I always take the long view, which keeps me focused on the task at hand rather than temporary fluctuations.
Thus far, public bettors have done significant damage to themselves with an action heavy approach that has greatly reduced their bankrolls. If the “squares” get hot right now, they may not be able to get back to break even for a long time because they have to bet smaller amounts these next few weeks. Too many casual bettors would have saved themselves a heck of a lot of time and aggravation if they just would have turned over all of their betting money to their favorite sportsbook initially. Too much dumb betting!
Here’s how professionals soften the blow when things aren’t going well for them…
*Always betting the best lines, turning some losses into pushes, some pushes into wins
*Betting proportionally in a systematic way
*Never chasing losses with panic bets later in the day
*Buying back on some line moves to set up middle potential
*Accurately evaluating talent levels of backup quarterbacks
Brains and discipline. With those, you have a chance to be a sharp. Lack one or both, and you’re going to go broke in Las Vegas. A lot of smart people have busted out because they lack discipline. Disciplined bettors just lose their money more slowly when they don’t know what they’re doing. YOU MUST HAVE BOTH!
Luckily, the very fact that you’re reading this article suggests that you have what it takes to succeed in Las Vegas. You’re smart enough to try to improve your skill set. You’re disciplined enough to show up twice every week for the coursework.
Focus this weekend on properly evaluating each game (whether it’s in the colleges or the pro’s), and on making your selection set fit naturally into your personal bankroll. Be honest about your bankroll. Be honest about your current limitations as a handicapper. Most importantly regarding today’s discussion…learn from what squares do wrong, and what sharps do right.
If you’d like some help doing that, you can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
I’ll be kicking off a big weekend Thursday and Friday Nights. And, there are definitely major releases planned for both Saturday and Sunday as THE MOTIVATION FACTOR starts to see more variation a few weeks into the season…and new GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS are making themselves known.
For you do-it-yourselfers, The Dean of Sports Handicapping is very proud of all you’ve accomplished already. Early September has been a challenge for even some of the most seasoned pros out here in Las Vegas. Hang in there if you’re not happy with your current results. Stay level-headed if you are! There’s a long season ahead. Winners rise to the top!