Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, September 1, 2014 at 2:00 PM
One week of college football action is in the books. Now it’s time to focus on proper handicapping strategies for Week One of the NFL. The season starts this Thursday Night when the Green Bay Packers visit the Seattle Seahawks. There are several other important games this Sunday and Monday Night involving playoff hopefuls.
Last week we talked about handicapping Week One in college football. The main difference as we adjust to the pros is that you have witnessed a month of exhibition action that should help sharpen your perceptions. You’re not “flying blind” into a new season. You’ve seen first stringers try to execute. Hopefully you took my advance and watched every dress rehearsal live or on replay. You should be ready to go!
Here are some quick keys to remember:
*Look to bet AGAINST any teams who were struggling to adjust to a new head coach, a new offensive or defensive coordinator, or a new starting quarterback. If teams didn’t have it figured out in their dress rehearsal, they sure won’t have it figured out in Game One.
Offenses who didn’t have their timing down or develop any confidence with a new system will be in BIG trouble when facing truly intense defense for the first time. As I’ve discussed in recent days, dress rehearsal defenses are still pretty vanilla. Disguised attacks and complicated personnel rotations come into play this week. There’s just no way an offense in transition will be ready for that challenge.
Defenses who couldn’t stop their opponent in a dress rehearsal because players were out of position and uncertain of their responsibilities aren’t going to get in synch until October at the earliest. They can’t even consider getting creative because players don’t even have their new basic fundamentals down pat yet. That’s bad enough in most years. If refs are going to call defensive holding all the time now, it will be even tougher for defenses in transition.
This is probably the single biggest factor you need to pay attention to this week in terms of finding games that will miss their Las Vegas price by a mile. “Known quantities” are easily priced. Troubles in transition cause bedlam!
*Don’t fall in love with teams who had a strong Preseason with their backups. This scenario usually affects one or two teams every September. Sometimes more. A team supposedly creates a winning atmosphere and great chemistry by getting good results in August. The problem is, they were getting those results with backups who won’t be on the field much moving forward…and they were getting those results against opponents who could care less about the scoreboard. I’ve seen too many in the wagering public (and a few pros) make huge bets in Week One because they “fell in love” with guys who won’t even be playing.
*Don’t overplay the card because you missed the NFL so much! I talked about this when the Preseason began, and again with the colleges. But, it still holds true for Week One of the NFL. Your excitement level is going to be through the roof this week because you missed live action GAMES THAT MATTER so much from NFL stars. That passion will be trying to trick you into betting at least 10 team sides and maybe half as many totals (not even counting parlays and teasers!).
Look, the lines can be soft in Week One. The market knows less now than it will next week and beyond. But, there aren’t THAT MANY bad numbers on the board. Focus on your very strongest opinions, and even try to cull those down to a few that you can bet with confidence. Don’t blow most or all of your bankroll in the first week of pro football! Nothing is more depressing than seeing a sports bettor ruin his season by busting right out of the gate.
I’m not going to talk specifics here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping because I have to protect the handful of games I’ll be attacking for my paying customers. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is fully confident however that students who have been preparing hard all summer are ready to hit the ground running this week. Just run with your BEST games rather than each and every lean! And, be sure to focus on the softest areas of the market involving those teams in transition.
If you’d like some help finding the best pro and college games on the board this week (and great baseball action from the pennant races, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about full season packages can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Back with you later this week to talk more football. I hope you have your list of GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS updated and handy for both the NFL and college action. I hope you’ve been studying THE MOTIVATION FACTOR, particularly in the colleges this week (pro teams generally aren’t “flat” for Week One). And, I hope you’ve made the necessary plans to protect and grow your bankrolls.
You really CAN be a successful bettor if you do it THE KELSO STURGEON WAY!