Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, August 28, 2014 at 3:00 PM
You regular students here in my Advanced College of Sports Betting and Handicapping know that I emphasize two key areas when studying football. You want to bet on teams that have more GAMEBREAKERS on the field, and you want to bet on teams that have a big edge in THE MOTIVATION FACTOR.
Now, some would tell you that it’s useless to study intangibles like motivation in Week One of a season because EVERYBODY is fired up to play football after such a long layoff. And, I would agree to a point. Certainly everyone’s excited to be back in uniform in front of crowds playing the game they love. Absolutely nobody in the nation will have thrown in the towel in August!
But, there ARE some motivational factors that come into play in Week One. And, smart handicappers should still be looking for them. There’s a difference between “excited” and “excited and MOTIVATED.” And, a team could still be “excited” while looking past this week’s no-name opponent to a bigger matchup next week. Allow The Dean of Sports Handicapping to run through some motivational categories for you.
There are some revenge games this weekend…and revenge matters even in Week One. Last year’s winner could come in ill-prepared because they’re not intimidated. Last year’s loser just spent a month watching game film of that loss to prepare for the rematch. Now, I’m not telling you that you should bet ALL revenge possibilities. Keep an eye on GOOD teams with revenge, or EXPERIENCED teams with revenge facing new quarterbacks or new head coaches.
This first week isn’t exactly jam-packed with thrillers. It’s great that we do have a handful of marquee matchups on TV. But, many quality programs have opponents this week that may not get their juices flowing. Look for value underdogs against these potentially flat favorites, particularly if the favorite has a big game on tap next week. It always amazes me that some sports bettors who live and die with “lookahead” or “sandwich” spots in the middle of the regular season forget to apply that same logic in Week One. We have an upset or two every season it seems…or at least some surprisingly close thrillers that involve an unfocused favorite.
You’ve probably heard over the years that highly ranked teams are bad bets against the spread early in the season. It doesn’t always work out that way. But, it does often enough to force you to pay attention to rankings and media hype. Any established power that just spent the summer reading about how great they were going to be, and doing TV interviews about championship possibilities in their conference or nationally has a chance to come out flat footed because of overconfidence. They assume things are going to be easy (particularly if they’re favored by 17 or more), while their opponent is fired up to make a name for themselves. I can tell you now that you will see some highly regarded teams this weekend show up flat as a pancake even though they should be excited that the season has finally arrived.
As always, I’m not going to talk specifics because I need to protect information for my clients. You may have read that I have a 50-unit play in college football on Friday, and then my annual 100-unit Kickoff Special on Saturday. Certainly my analysis of GAMEBREAKERS and THE MOTIVATION FACTOR are contributing elements to those plays.
I believe that do-it-yourselfers who study the coursework hard have a good chance of uncovering those themselves. If you need additional guidance, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Please check out the full season packages that offer the most bang for your buck. Questions can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
It’s so exciting to have regular season football back on the calendar. This is going to be a great opening weekend of college action. Then, the NFL starts playing for real next Thursday with Green Bay at Seattle. In the coming weeks, we’ll have a mix of college and NFL material on these pages. Baseball will return for a couple of spots once the playoffs arrive in October. Thanks to everyone who read the baseball material this past summer.
All of your summer work is about to pay off. And, I’ll do my very best to provide timely coursework during the season (including many “read and react” articles when developments warrant). Beating the Vegas line is hard work. You’ve proven to me that you’re capable of providing the passion and commitment it takes to succeed. See you again early next week!