Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, August 25, 2014 at 2:00 PM
The first week of college football action is always a volatile one for the major betting market. Generally speaking, nobody is going to be as DUMB this season as they are NOW regarding knowledge of teams across the nation. No matter how much work you’ve done to prepare, there are still elements of the unknown in all corners of the landscape.
*Many new head coaches
*Many new starting quarterbacks
*Many offensive and defensive coordinators
*Many relatively experienced “units” at the point of attack or in the secondary
*Many quirky schedule situations that haven’t come up before
You’ll know more about what Charlie Strong is doing at Texas after this week. You’ll know more about Miami’s freshman quarterback after this week. Multiply that by about a hundred, and that’s all the blanks in college football that are about to be filled in.
Does that mean you should PASS the first week of action? That’s not the worst idea in the world, particularly for many of you who are way too aggressive with your early season bankrolls. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen overconfident public bettors blow most of their full-season bankrolls on the first Saturday of college football because they have so much pent-up energy after the long offseason. Combine that with arrogance, and you have guys losing 10 games they shouldn’t have even been betting. They’re almost tapped out before the NFL has even started!
YOU who are students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping need to be smart. Pick your spots. And focus on the following:
*Programs you know well because you follow them closely as a fan or alumnus or they’re the local team in your area.
*Teams who return stability and experience from the 2013 season. Established programs with a returning quarterback and a lot of returning starters are likely to pick up right where they left off at the end of last year. You can handicap their games with confidence.
*Programs who are loaded with GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS, because that’s who’s going to determine who wins and covers season openers. In fact, they can play an even bigger role than normal in Week One because there’s so much confusion everywhere else. High impact “known quantities” will be extremely important this week.
*Programs you are confident will STRUGGLE because the head coach has made it clear he’s in over his head at this level, or because the projected starting quarterback is a proven mediocrity from last season. As always, a lot of your best bets will come in situations where you’re betting AGAINST someone rather than on them.
*Bankroll management! Figure out before you even start making bets how much of your full season bankroll you want to be at risk in this first weekend. Then, figure out how you’re going to proportion that through the unique Labor Day Weekend. If that means passing on Thursday and Sunday, or Friday and Monday, so be it. The fact that you LOVE betting on football doesn’t mean you should be irresponsible with your money. Ideally, you should be risking no more than 10% of your full season bankrolls in total this weekend…which would best be divided at about 2% over five different bets. If you do well Thursday and Friday, you can tweak the percentages conservatively through the weekend.
I’m really looking forward to this weekend. But, that’s because KELSO STURGEON has a handful of plays he thinks are terrific…rather than 25 games where he’ll be chasing action. Force yourself to be extra picky this week, and reign in those urges to chase “the thrill of victory” at the expense of common sense.
If you’d like some help finding the best opportunities in the board, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you’re wondering about seasonal rates, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Take care of business now so you can hit the ground running on Thursday.
I’ll be back again later this week to talk more college football. There’s a strong opening week schedule on tap…featuring the likes of Texas A&M at South Carolina and Boise State vs. Ole Miss in Atlanta on Thursday…and then Clemson at Georgia and LSU vs. Wisconsin in Dallas on Saturday. There’s nothing wrong with just WATCHING those games if you don’t have a clear edge. What you learn from watching may help you uncover clear edges in future games.
I know you’ve been doing your preparation work all summer. Now, the Dean of Sports Handicapping wants you to hunker down for the long haul. Have a great start so you can enjoy a great money-making marathon through the 2014 season!