Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, August 21, 2014 at 3:00 PM
Between now and late Sunday evening, sports bettors will get a very good look at the most important players on all 32 NFL teams. This is a RESEARCH opportunity that students in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping absolutely, positively can’t pass up!
I strongly encourage you to watch as many games as you can on live TV. And, if you have the NFL Network (which you should), record all the others so you can watch them at your leisure between now and the start of the regular season. You actually have time to do that because next week’s Preseason games are largely dead weight. From the time Cincinnati/Arizona ends this Sunday Night, you have at least a dozen study days to look at “starter vs. starter” action before each team plays a game that matters.
Defenses still largely play vanilla formations in dress rehearsals. They go at full intensity, but they don’t show much in terms of disguising blitzes and coverages. That means MOST of what you should be studying is on offense. And, you need to pay particular attention to STRUGGLING offenses because anyone’s who’s struggling now will really be in trouble once those disguised defenses are unleashed!
Focus on these offensive keys:
*MOVING THE CHAINS
First downs are the coin of the realm in the modern game, as teams try to march down the field in low risk fashion. Fantasy bettors and too many in the media are in love with TD stats and big yardage totals. YOU need to focus on first down conversions so you can place smart bets on the most efficient teams in September.
Moving the ball doesn’t get you anywhere if you give it away before you score! Teams who make a lot of mistakes in Week Three of the Preseason aren’t ready for September, and aren’t going to be ready because hardly any of the starters see serious action in Week Four. You want to bet on offenses that zip up and down the field without the ball touching the ground. You want to bet against offenses that make too many miscues.
*OFFENSIVE LINES GIVING QUARTERBACKS TIME TO PASS
Far too many sports bettors look at the ball when watching games. They’re “fans” rather than analysts. You need to spend more time watching the line of scrimmage. This should be really easy for you in the games you’ve recorded. You already know who won…figure out WHY they won! I think the single greatest “hidden” handicapping edge in this sport (college and pro) comes from recognizing strength or weaknesses on the offensive line. I’ll point out again that defenses are keeping things simple schematically this week. Any offensive lines who are struggling vs. that approach will really be in trouble in September.
In a league of parity, every single possession matters. Smart teams have learned how to squeeze out an extra possession per game with time management at the end of halves. Since each possession is worth a couple of points in the big picture, that can be the difference between winning and losing a close game. Now, this week, the end of regulation won’t matter much because starters won’t be on the field. But, at the end of the first half, pay attention to clock management…particularly for young quarterbacks. Veterans already know what they’re doing. Youngsters in their first, second, or third year need to show growth.
I can’t go into many dress rehearsal specifics because I have to protect my information for paying clients. That’s why I’m focusing on what you can learn for future Las Vegas betting in today’s coursework. You probably know by now that I have some very big releases planned over the next few days. You can purchase those right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you’re wondering about seasonal rates, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Next week we’ll talk about college football. The action in that sport begins Thursday August 28 when Texas A&M visits South Carolina and Boise State plays Ole Miss in Atlanta. Marquee matchups a couple of days later on Saturday include Clemson/Georgia and LSU/Wisconsin. You can expect a mix of college and pro football from this point forward. I won’t have a chance to talk about baseball again until the playoffs arrive in October.
Be sure you make the most of this week’s NFL dress rehearsal games…both as a “real time” bettor and as an “advance man” who’s always thinking about possible edges to exploit down the road. This is the most exciting week of football since the playoffs last January. You’ve been waiting (and preparing) all summer for your chance to win big again on the gridiron. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is confident you will make it happen!