Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, August 7, 2014 at 2:00 PM
You may have seen that I’ll be releasing a couple of decent-sized plays this weekend in NFL Preseason action (at least one 25-unit selection, and a 50-unit selection). I’m unable to talk specifically about those particular matchups because I must protect the information for my paying clients. But, I do want to talk generally for you students in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping about what it takes for an analyst to step out aggressively in August.
*First, I want clear evidence that one team is going to be trying much harder than the other. It’s important that you read wire story copy quoting head coaches (and hopefully some offensive and defensive coordinators too). This is very easy these days with the internet. Newspapers in every NFL city have beat reporters covering the team. ESPN has coverage on every team. And, the league itself has a website with team-by-team coverage.
Listen for tells from the coaches about the importance of playing sharply and/or getting a victory is. In many of the games, NEITHER team really cares that much and you should just pass. Occasionally, BOTH teams will prioritize a game…and that might lead to an Over bet because a scoring shootout is likely. Typically, you’ll find couple of situations each weekend where there’s a motivational mismatch. Because Preseason pointspreads are so low, you can bet the motivated team with a reasonable level of confidence.
*Second, I want the advantage in the projected quarterback rotation. Some teams just have dead weight playing in the second half, and there’s no reason to bet on dead weight. I’ll bet an Under if both teams in a game have poor backup quarterbacks. But, you won’t find KELSO STURGEON rooting for a bad quarterback to score points in August. Once again, media coverage comes in very handy here because coaches are generally not very secretive about their quarterback plans in an exhibition.
One of the simplest ways to look for edges in August is to line up the quarterback rotations and put plus (+) or minus (-) signs by each signal caller slated to see playing time. If you do that and nothing else (!), some very favorable options will present themselves in dramatic fashion. Won’t take you much more than an hour if you’re quick on the computer.
*Finally today, I want to emphasize the importance of head coaching histories when making Preseason selections. Some head coaches have shown that they want to get results…or at least that they expect their first two units to perform at a high level in a way that has generated pointspread success in the past. Others could care less about the scoreboard, particularly in Weeks One and Two. Betting against the coaches who don’t care should be automatic, at least for value bets if nothing else has lined up well. If you have other indicators AND a head coach who doesn’t care on the other side…then a big Las Vegas bet is called for.
I’ve said enough. And, I’ve left out some other keys that will help protect my pending releases. Your homework right now is very clear. Read internet coverage about all 32 teams to determine coaching priorities and projected quarterback rotations. And, track down past pointspread histories for non-rookie head coaches. Using “team” histories can be irrelevant. Lovie Smith’s past history in the Preseason is more likely to be predictive for Tampa Bay this summer than Tampa Bay’s past history as a team. It doesn’t matter what the Bucs did under prior head coaches. Lovie Smith will set the tone as the new man in town.
If you want to take the easy way out, or if you just want to supplement your own picks with the BEST BETS of a proven winner, you can purchase daily Best Bets or the full Preseason package right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about service? Please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Ask about combination packages that get you the very best from both football and baseball.
I’ll be back again early next week with what is likely to be another pro football discussion. I liked to “read and react” once a season starts…and I’m assuming a topic will present itself with a major development on the field this weekend. There’s also a chance I’ll devote a day to college football preparation since we’ve been NFL heavy of late. Baseball will probably go on the backburner until the playoffs arrive in terms of coursework unless something dramatic happens on the diamonds.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping appreciates your attendance and hard work. Your summer football preparation is about to pay off from now through the Super Bowl!